**CORE IDEA**
This week's price data showed broad increases in commodity prices and energy costs; industrial supply conditions improved; investment activity saw transaction volume recovery; and transportation consumption data displayed mixed performance.
1. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index experienced slight volatility and decline, while international crude oil prices rose across the board. Prices generally increased, with only pork prices showing modest decline.
2. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined, with glass and coking coal prices showing mixed performance, while supply-side conditions recovered.
3. In real estate investment data, transaction volumes showed signs of warming. Second-hand housing listing price indices and cumulative housing completion areas remain below historical levels for the same period.
4. Transportation consumption data remained relatively mixed. Subway passenger volumes in first-tier cities showed divergent trends; passenger vehicle retail sales and box office revenues both increased; while scheduled flight operations decreased.
**Full Analysis**
**01 Price-Related Indicators**
This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index experienced slight volatility and decline, while international crude oil prices rose uniformly. Specifically, Brent crude increased by $1.98 per barrel, and WTI crude rose by $1.41 per barrel.
Prices generally increased, with only pork prices showing modest decline. Average vegetable wholesale prices increased by 0.1 yuan per kilogram, and average fruit wholesale prices rose by 0.11 yuan per kilogram. Average beef wholesale prices increased by 0.72 yuan per kilogram, and average mutton wholesale prices rose by 0.65 yuan per kilogram, while average pork wholesale prices declined by 0.06 yuan per kilogram.
**02 Industrial Indicators**
This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined, with glass and coking coal prices showing mixed performance, while supply-side conditions recovered. Specifically, glass futures closing prices increased by 36 yuan per ton over the past week, while coking coal futures closing prices decreased by 35.5 yuan per ton.
Both blast furnace operating rates and petroleum asphalt operating rates increased: blast furnace operating rates rose modestly by 0.47%, and petroleum asphalt operating rates increased by 5.7%.
**03 Real Estate Investment Indicators**
This week, transaction volume data in real estate investment showed signs of warming. Both land transaction areas in 100 major cities and commercial housing transaction areas in 30 major cities increased.
The decline in second-hand housing listing price indices has moderated but remains at historically low levels. The cumulative value of housing completion areas showed increased growth compared to the previous month, but still remains below historical levels for the same period.
**04 Transportation and Consumption Indicators**
This week, transportation and consumption data remained relatively mixed. Beijing and Shanghai subway passenger volumes increased, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen subway passenger volumes decreased. Box office revenues increased, exceeding historical data for the same period.
Passenger vehicle retail sales increased, rising 9.2% compared to the same period last month. Domestic scheduled flight operations decreased.
**Risk Disclaimer**
Markets are influenced by multiple factors, and technical analysis has certain limitations. Macroeconomic policies may experience unexpected marginal changes, potentially altering asset pricing logic and causing bond market adjustments. Institutional behavior has certain unpredictability, and when institutional behavior becomes highly synchronized and forms negative feedback loops, it may lead to bond market adjustments.