Since its listing on June 12, shares of SpaceX (SPCX) have more than halved from their peak and fallen below the initial public offering price. However, retail investors have maintained net buying every day, with no net selling days ever recorded. In the first hour of trading Wednesday, net retail purchases hit $22.7 million, more than triple the average first-hour inflow for the stock. This marked the third-highest net buying volume in the first hour over the 37 trading days since listing.

The surge came on the same day the company released its first-ever earnings report, which triggered a sharp share price decline, paradoxically drawing in more retail investors. While enthusiasm has cooled somewhat from the initial frenzy鈥?with net buying reaching $405 million in the first five trading days and dropping to $103 million in the five days before the earnings report鈥?retail investors have consistently remained net buyers throughout.

Price performance versus retail logic

SpaceX debuted at $135 per share, briefly surged to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, then fell more than 50% from that peak, eventually slipping below the offering price. Despite this, individual investors continue to accumulate shares. Vanda Research noted that retail investors view SpaceX as a transformative artificial intelligence play, rather than a pure space exploration or interstellar travel story. They are betting on long-term tenfold upside potential, rather than focusing on the next quarterly result.

First earnings report and spending context

In its inaugural quarterly report as a public company, SpaceX exceeded expectations on both revenue and adjusted earnings. However, the company spent nearly $16 billion in the quarter on artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure, highlighting the high cost of expansion. While retail investors interpreted this spending as an investment in future growth, the stock still experienced significant selling pressure.

Lock-up expiration supply pressure

On Thursday, up to 912 million shares held by employees and pre-IPO investors will become unrestricted and eligible for sale. This could more than double the current number of shares in circulation. The unlocking does not mandate selling鈥?it simply removes restrictions, allowing early holders who acquired shares at prices far below the IPO price to potentially sell. Since shortly after the listing, this potential supply overhang has been a major market focus. Thursday will be a more severe test: whether retail investors, who have been buying consistently, can absorb the possible selling pressure from nearly 1 billion newly unlocked shares.