Market Highlights and Critical Data

At Thursday's close, the TTF October contract settled at 73.58 euros per megawatt-hour, edging up 0.25%. The JKM November contract slipped 2.87% to $26.10 per million British thermal units, while the NYMEX October Henry Hub futures climbed 6.68% to finish at $3.018 per million British thermal units.

The chief executive of Qatar Energy, Saad Al-Kaabi, stated at the Qatar Economic Forum in New York that the company anticipates launching LNG expansion at the North Field East project in 2027, followed by the North Field South project in 2028. The first LNG train from North Field East is expected to begin operations in the first half of next year, with additional trains from the same project potentially coming online later that year. Al-Kaabi noted that several LNG trains from the new projects should start operations over the next two years, adding that the pace of subsequent train launches will depend heavily on conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, since any shortfall in necessary infrastructure could delay the timeline.

Norway's Gassco has extended capacity restrictions at the Troll gas field, while an additional unplanned maintenance event has shut down the Sleipner field facilities. A transparency notice issued on September 21 revealed a compressor failure at one of the operating units within the Troll field, which will persist through the September 26 gas production day, extending the previous estimate by 24 hours. This incident reduces daily capacity at the facility by 46.2 million cubic meters, leaving remaining available capacity at 86 million cubic meters per day. Gassco has described the Troll field outage as having an uncertain duration, while maintenance work at Sleipner is expected to be completed before the start of the gas production day on September 22. Gassco classified the Sleipner field operations under the category of corrective maintenance.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 21 showed that China's LNG imports fell 17.8% year-on-year in August to 5.16 million tonnes, constrained by higher international prices and weak domestic natural gas demand. August imports also declined 6.1% from July's 5.5 million tonnes, marking the second consecutive monthly drop and the lowest monthly volume since February 2025, when imports stood at 4.54 million tonnes.

Investment Outlook

In the Asian and European markets, prices have stabilized following a rapid decline driven by expectations of US-Iran negotiations and US-China talks. The market has quickly priced in the possibility that, even after a resumption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, Europe will still face persistently low inventory levels heading into autumn. Meanwhile, continued weak demand in East Asia has begun to ease procurement pressure in that region. The US market has found some support from recently elevated southern temperatures, and storage builds this week are expected to remain slower than usual, keeping prices in a range bound to slightly firmer territory, though breaking above the $3 mark may encounter further upside resistance.

Strategy

Shifting to a wait-and-see stance until major event-driven shocks play out, while selectively positioning in call options. With procurement enthusiasm in the Asian market starting to wane, shorting the JKM-TTF spread is recommended.

Risks

Upside risks include stronger autumn restocking demand in Asia, or any Middle East conflict that disrupts production or export facilities. Downside risks involve a rapid easing of Middle East tensions, or a weak macroeconomic environment that suppresses demand.