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Market U.S. stock markets showed divergent trends driven by sector rotation on January 9, with the Dow Jones closing up 270 points and the Nasdaq closing down 100 points. Among the top 20 U.S. stocks by trading volume on January 9, Apple closed lower for the seventh consecutive trading day. Most popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rose on January 9, with Alibaba up 5.26%, while UMC fell 4.54%. WTI crude oil prices advanced as traders assessed risks stemming from Iran and the outlook for the situation in Venezuela. Spot gold fell 0.90% to $4,454.32 per ounce. European stocks declined for a second consecutive day, stalling the New Year's rally.

Macro The U.S. Senate is advancing legislation to oppose further military action in Venezuela, with five Republicans defecting. Former President Trump singled out five Republican senators, criticizing them for siding with Democrats. Trump stated he has "already made a decision" regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair. Bascent anticipates an announcement on the Fed Chair nominee later this month. Ahead of a Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs, the Treasury Secretary claimed a potential loss would not affect tariff revenue. The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced the U.S. will lift some sanctions on Venezuelan entities. The Treasury Secretary denied claims that oil companies are taking a wait-and-see approach towards investing in Venezuela's oil sector. Following the U.S. capture of a vessel linked to Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela announced a plan to release prisoners. The President of Venezuela's National Assembly stated a considerable number of prisoners are being released. Venezuela has established a high-level committee to work towards the release of Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Trump plans to take a leading role in Venezuela's oil industry, aiming to push oil prices down to $50 per barrel. A UN spokesperson warned the U.S. could lose its General Assembly voting rights if it continues to owe membership dues. U.S. consumer credit increased by $4.229 billion in November, falling short of expectations. Productivity accelerated in the third quarter while labor costs declined in the U.S. U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.2% month-over-month in October, matching expectations. A New York Fed survey showed consumer inflation expectations rose in December, while confidence in the job market worsened. U.S. layoffs decreased in December, with businesses planning further hiring increases. The House failed to override a veto from the Trump presidency, the first such instance. The Mayor of Minneapolis condemned immigration enforcement officers, as a shooting incident intensified anger and divisions. Protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) escalated in Minneapolis following a shooting incident. Vance urged European leaders to take Trump's statements regarding Greenland seriously. The U.S. is considering payments of up to $100,000 to Greenland residents to persuade them to support independence. French President Macron criticized the U.S. for violating international law and distancing itself from some allies.

Corporate Trump praised Intel and its CEO, Pat Gelsinger, leading to a rise in the company's stock price in after-hours trading. A leading candidate to succeed Apple CEO Tim Cook was revealed, known for a focus on hardware and involvement in exploring foldable phone development. Glencore and Rio Tinto have restarted merger talks, planning to form the world's largest mining company. ANTA SPORTS plans to acquire the 29% stake in Puma held by the Pinault family. Paramount reiterated its offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share. The Director of the FHFA stated Trump will decide on the IPO plans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac within one to two months. Trump proposed a significant increase in the Pentagon budget, causing defense stocks to rally. Constellation Brands reported third-quarter profit and revenue that exceeded expectations.

Commentary View Summary: Milan expects 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, with the dollar potentially weakening in the first half. Federal Reserve Governor Milan hopes for 150 basis points in interest rate cuts this year. A Goldman Sachs survey found institutional investor bearishness on oil is near its highest level in a decade. Morgan Stanley suggested a $1.5 trillion military budget could boost defense stocks. U.S. Data: The October trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since mid-2009, coming in at less than half of expectations. The Trump administration's withdrawal from a core UN climate treaty has sparked legal controversy. The U.S. Energy Secretary stated major oil companies are evaluating their potential roles in Venezuela's energy sector. Grain prices were mixed as traders focused on tariff rulings and upcoming USDA reports. The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged, with tech stocks declining while small-cap stocks advanced. European Bond Markets: German bonds ended a three-day rally, while UK gilts extended their gains. U.S. Bond Markets: Treasuries declined driven by economic data, with markets focused on the nonfarm payrolls report and the Supreme Court ruling.