Kuaishou will release its second-quarter 2025 earnings report on August 21st. The market is focused on the evolution of its high-potential e-commerce business and the development of Keling AI.
First quarter Review
In the first quarter of 2025, Kuaishou achieved total revenue of 32.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. Adjusted net profit reached 4.6 billion yuan, with a profit margin of 14%. Average daily active users (DAU) reached 408 million, a record high. Keling AI's operating revenue exceeded 150 million yuan this quarter. The overseas business achieved positive overall operating profit for the first time in a single quarter, and revenue from the local lifestyle business tripled year-on-year.
Second Quarter Forecast
According to Bloomberg data, analysts generally expect Kuaishou to report second-quarter receivables of 34.453 billion yuan, adjusted EPS of 1.18 yuan, and adjusted EBITDA of 7.19 billion yuan.
Livestreaming Business is Steady
Kuaishou launched its Summer Livestreaming Festival in May, investing hundreds of millions of yuan in cash and establishing a track for over 1,400 livestreamers, increasing supply density and interactive activity. With industry regulation becoming more standardized, tipping growth is expected to remain robust in the long term.
Evolution of E-commerce Business
In recent years, e-commerce platforms have been increasing their investment in self-operated businesses. This model, which allows for direct control over product quality, logistics, and after-sales service, is more likely to gain consumer trust. Kuaishou's previous e-commerce business primarily relied on third-party merchants and livestreaming. While it has accumulated a large user base and transaction volume, it still has room for improvement in quality control and supply chain management. What new developments will Kuaishou introduce in its e-commerce business will be a key focus in the second quarter.
Can Keling AI Accelerate?
In the first quarter, Keling's revenue exceeded 150 million yuan, driving a 15.2% year-on-year increase in other revenue. The high growth trend is expected to continue in the second quarter. Keling currently has a dual-engine business model encompassing both B-side businesses and C-side creators, accelerating its expansion into more AI-native content scenarios such as digital humans and game generation. Enterprises' willingness to pay continues to increase, with monthly user spending exceeding 100 million yuan.
Institutional Views
JPMorgan Chase: Reiterates Kuaishou as a top pick in China's digital entertainment industry, raising its target price from HK$71 to HK$88 and maintaining an "overweight" rating.
UBS: Reiterates its "buy" rating on Kuaishou with a target price of HK$95.37.
Nomura Securities: Expects Kuaishou's second-quarter results to be in line with expectations, raising its target price from HK$63 to HK$86 and maintaining a "buy" rating.