Macquarie has revised its rating on Li Auto-W (02015) from "Underperform" to "Neutral," while lowering its price target for the H-shares by 3% from HK$59 to HK$57. This adjustment follows a reduction in the firm's fiscal year 2026 sales forecast by 12%, driven by concerns over potential slowing demand for new models. Consequently, the net loss per share estimate has been revised to RMB 0.32, compared to a prior forecast of earnings per share of RMB 0.63.

For the company's US-listed shares (Li Auto (LI.US)), the price target is maintained at US$15, reflecting foreign exchange considerations.

Li Auto's vehicle gross margin for the first quarter of this year was in the single digits as anticipated, yet quarterly deliveries remained solid, supported by a recovery in sales of the i6 battery-electric vehicle (BEV). The firm expects profitability to improve in the second quarter as the sales mix shifts away from the i6 BEV towards higher average selling price (ASP) models, such as the L9 and the new L8.

The report notes that Li Auto's first-quarter net loss reached RMB 2.1 billion, which still surpassed both market and the firm's own expectations. Management has also raised its fiscal year 2026 sales target by 20%, primarily due to the planned launch of the new L8 in late June, followed by the new L7 in the second half of the year.

Macquarie believes the first quarter of this year likely represents the trough for Li Auto's performance, with a potential recovery in its near-term fundamentals.