According to a report from Zhitong Finance APP, CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV.US), one of the leading NeoCloud players, has significantly eased market anxiety and doubts about the NeoCloud business model with strong revenue growth data and far more optimistic-than-expected compute orders and financing arrangements, and the company's strong fundamental results and explosive orders drove a broad rally across US stock market AI compute supply chain names.

Another NeoCloud leading force—European tech leader NEBIUS (NBIS.US), which has shifted its focus in recent years to providing cloud-based AI compute resources—now urgently needs to prove, after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was hit by another negative news event that sent Nvidia plunging in after-hours trading and dragged the AI compute supply chain down in tandem, that compute price increases can be realized in sync with better-than-expected capacity deliveries and faster-than-expected funding availability, so that the new round of compute enthusiasm ignited by CoreWeave's strong results and Anthropic's IPO roadshow can be sustained.

NEBIUS will release its earnings report and future outlook before the US market open on November 12 Beijing time.

As of Wednesday's US market close, CoreWeave's strong earnings and financing arrangements pushed memory chips, AI chips, optical interconnect, and NeoCloud sectors higher collectively, with CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV.US) and NEBIUS (NBIS.US) rising approximately 24.7% and 15.4% respectively; but in after-hours trading, media reports about another extramarital affair involving Jensen Huang and board discussions about his future caused Nvidia to fall more than 8%, and most AI compute-related stock prices came under pressure accordingly.

Meanwhile, CoreWeave's explosive results, Anthropic's prospectus disclosure of $16.956 billion in quarterly revenue, and especially the AI application leader's multi-year procurement and leasing commitments totaling $900.9 billion, continued to provide evidence for compute demand expansion. What the market needs NEBIUS to answer next is whether strong demand can continue to translate into deliverable, billable compute with return on investment.

NEBIUS focuses on integrating GPUs, high-speed optical interconnect, storage, and scheduling software into training and inference services, and with a business structure primarily based on 1-to-3-year contracts, it seeks to capture compute price increases more quickly. Truist maintains a "Buy" rating and a $355 price target, precisely bullish on this repricing capability; Citi raised its long-term revenue forecast but lowered its price target, reflecting the market's higher demands on financing and valuation. If this earnings report simultaneously delivers better-than-expected revenue, faster capacity ramp-up, and a clear financing continuation plan, NEBIUS could potentially extend the counterattack started by CoreWeave into a continuous validation of NeoCloud profitability potential, allowing earnings fundamentals to once again become an important bullish pricing basis for the AI compute trading theme.

CoreWeave Ignites Compute Counterattack, Nebius Takes the Baton to Test Growth Quality

As of the US market close on November 11 Eastern Time, CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV.US) rose 24.7%, and NEBIUS (NBIS.US) rose 15.44% to close at $154.69; the Nasdaq 100 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.28% and 5.66% respectively. Memory leaders Micron and SanDisk rose 11.89% and 13.69% respectively, while optical interconnect leaders Lumentum and Coherent rose 10.67% and 9.25% respectively, as capital re-entered core AI compute infrastructure segments including AI chip-related core computing, storage, high-speed optical connectivity, compute leasing, CPUs, PCBs, and 3D advanced packaging.

An important support for this rally is that compute demand is beginning to receive dual validation from revenue and funding sources. CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV.US) reported third-quarter revenue of $3.661 billion, up 168% year-over-year, raised its full-year revenue guidance to $13 billion to $13.3 billion, and expects to receive approximately $9 billion in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months. Management also made clear that at current yield levels, it will primarily support construction through delayed draw term loans (DDTL) matched to specific customer contracts, reducing reliance on high-cost unsecured financing. The positive AI investment sentiment it conveys is undoubtedly that large customers are committing to a significant extent to helping compute suppliers raise construction funds, reducing the possibility that order expansion is interrupted by financing obstacles.

The AI application side also provided new demand evidence. Anthropic's prospectus disclosed third-quarter revenue of $16.956 billion, up approximately 1,127% year-over-year and 46.7% quarter-over-quarter; procurement and leasing commitments totaled $900.9 billion, the vast majority involving compute and infrastructure, of which $451.6 billion is expected to occur before the end of 2030, with the remainder mainly distributed across 2031-2045. This reflects the connection between model commercialization and long-term compute procurement, but the conversion of these commitments into supplier revenue still depends on specific delivery arrangements. Anthropic's IPO therefore tests both application-layer valuation and the capital market's willingness to support subsequent compute investment.

However, it is worth noting that a new trading variable emerged after Wednesday's close. A media report in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time stated that Jensen Huang was again exposed for an extramarital affair, and Nvidia's board discussed his future, sending the stock down more than 8% in after-hours trading; NEBIUS (NBIS.US) also fell about 4.1% after hours. If NEBIUS's earnings report exceeds expectations on revenue, deliveries, and financing simultaneously, it could significantly strengthen market confidence in compute demand following CoreWeave's strong results, and may even significantly cool negative sentiment related to uncertainty about Nvidia's management.

NEBIUS's core value in the AI compute supply chain is similar to CoreWeave's, mainly organizing GPUs, power, high-speed networking, storage, and scheduling software into stably deliverable AI cloud services. Large model training requires large numbers of GPUs to synchronously exchange parameters and data, while inference and agents continuously consume compute, VRAM, and storage resources; purchasing chips alone cannot solve cluster efficiency and reliability issues. NEBIUS reduces customer deployment difficulty through InfiniBand interconnect, training scheduling, and managed inference platforms, and takes on capacity needs that customers cannot build in time themselves. When supply is tight, rapid delivery and shorter contract terms together create repricing opportunities, allowing demand growth to be reflected more quickly in revenue per megawatt.

Nebius Earnings Preview: Compute Demand, Contracts, and Financing Plans in Focus

NEBIUS will release third-quarter results before the US market open on Thursday Beijing time, with Wall Street analysts unanimously expecting a loss of $0.63 per share and revenue of $907.17 million for the quarter. In the previous quarter, this Netherlands-based AI compute infrastructure provider reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance across metrics, including an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion, group revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion (midpoint $3.2 billion), and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40%. The market consensus for full-year revenue is $3.35 billion. Wall Street's senior analysts are broadly bullish, with focus expected on NEBIUS's future construction progress, financing plans, and pricing on new and shorter-term contracts.

Truist Securities believes NEBIUS is particularly positioned to capture compute price increases because its business is mainly composed of contracts with terms of 1 to 3 years. The firm believes the company will have greater flexibility on shorter-term contracts to capture gains from price increases. This well-known Wall Street brokerage expects NEBIUS's annualized revenue run rate for the quarter to exceed $4.8 billion, with connected power capacity reaching 730 megawatts, of which operating capacity is approximately 600 megawatts, and reiterates a "Buy" rating and $355 price target. Citigroup's equity research division also raised its revenue forecasts for NEBIUS for fiscal years 2027 to 2030 by 20%, while expecting that against the backdrop of continued compute demand growth, annualized revenue run rate per megawatt will accelerate in the coming years. However, although the brokerage gave the stock a "Buy" rating, it lowered its price target from $324 to $265.

Overall, Seeking Alpha's quant rating, Seeking Alpha's own platform analysts, and Wall Street analyst ratings compiled by TipRanks all hold bullish stances, giving the stock the most optimistic rating equivalent to "Buy." Compared with peer CoreWeave, NEBIUS's overall credit liabilities and operating leverage are much lower, so the company's stock price can be described as resilient compared with the former, whose share price has nearly halved; NEBIUS shares have risen more than 82% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark index, which has risen nearly 10% over the same period. However, Seeking Alpha analyst Lee Bailey warned that NEBIUS faces risks from high capital expenditure, equity dilution, and equipment replacement, and gave it a "Sell" rating. Bailey added that NEBIUS has signed major contracts with Microsoft and Meta, providing rare revenue visibility, but rapid expansion also exposes the company to execution and delivery risks as well as funding chain rupture risks associated with AI infrastructure financing. Bailey concluded: "Current pricing and margins are excellent, but their sustainability remains uncertain because hardware refresh cycles and future competition may erode returns." Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 3 downward revisions, while revenue estimates have seen 7 upward revisions and 5 downward revisions.

Compute Price Increases Open Revenue Space, Capacity Expansion and AI Infrastructure Financing Costs Affect Shareholder Returns and the AI Compute Rally Trajectory

NEBIUS plans to release third-quarter results before the US market open on November 12. Seeking Alpha's compiled consensus expects revenue of $907.17 million and a loss of $0.63 per share, corresponding to revenue growth of approximately 521% year-over-year and approximately 55.8% quarter-over-quarter. What the market is really watching is whether new capacity is beginning to contribute revenue, and whether the company can deliver on its year-end annualized revenue run rate (ARR) target of $7 billion to $9 billion. It should be noted that ARR here is calculated by multiplying AI cloud revenue in the final month of the quarter by 12, reflecting the business scale at period-end. Truist expects third-quarter ARR to exceed $4.8 billion, corresponding to 730 megawatts of connected power capacity and approximately 600 megawatts of operating capacity; the gap between the two is precisely the key to converting capacity into billable services.

The common basis for institutional bullishness is compute supply constraints and short-contract repricing. Truist maintains "Buy" and a $355 price target, bullish on a business structure mainly based on 1-to-3-year contracts to capture price increases; Citi raised its 2027-2030 revenue forecasts by 20% but simultaneously lowered its price target from $324 to $265, maintaining "Buy"; another Wall Street financial giant, Bank of America, recently reiterated "Buy" and a $310 price target, bullish on capacity expansion and price increases from shorter contracts. Based on the November 11 closing price of $154.69, the three targets imply upside of approximately 129.5%, 71.3%, and 100.4% respectively. Citi's combination of higher revenue forecasts and a lower price target especially illustrates that operating growth and equity valuation are being driven by different factors, and strong demand still needs financing and capital returns to support it.

This divergence can be understood to some extent from the financing structure. NEBIUS announced in October that it had obtained $3.5 billion in senior secured financing from Citi with a 364-day term, an initial interest rate of term SOFR plus 275 basis points, subsequently stepping up as agreed. Therefore, after short-term construction funding is replenished, the market still needs to assess how long-term financing will continue. For GPU cloud companies, rising rental prices improve revenue, equipment utilization determines the degree of fixed-cost dilution, and depreciation, replacement spending, and interest determine ultimate returns. The most valuable earnings beat in this report should be the simultaneous appearance of stronger AI compute order data, higher billable capacity, better contract prices, and financing arrangements more appropriately matched to delivery pace.