Gold and silver prices moved higher during early US trading on Thursday, with the precious metals complex finding support from a modest pullback in Treasury yields and softer crude oil prices. This rebound came on the heels of the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years, alongside guidance suggesting further tightening could be on the horizon. Spot gold was trading near $4,365.41 per ounce, up 2.37%, while spot silver hovered around $65.420 per ounce, marking a 3.88% gain.

The current market positioning is being shaped largely by Wednesday's Fed decision and the subsequent interpretation of its policy trajectory. The central bank raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with updated economic projections indicating rates could climb further to around 4.1%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that the decision was driven by persistently elevated inflation, resilient domestic demand, and a labor market that has yet to soften enough to warrant a pause in tightening. Adding to that narrative, initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, the lowest level since mid-July, reinforcing the view that layoffs remain scarce across the economy.

The 2-year Treasury yield eased to approximately 4.72%, while the 10-year yield hovered near the 5.00% mark, with the US dollar index drifting slightly lower. For gold, the current signal mix remains a tug-of-war: the tightening path continues to act as a bearish overhang, yet declining oil prices and lower yields have triggered a short-covering bounce. This advance in both gold and silver should be viewed as a tactical rebound rather than a reversal of the broader trend.

Where the charts point next

From a technical perspective, gold is still trading below the $4,354 resistance level, and only a daily close above $4,403 would improve the chart structure. Silver, while recovering above $64.40, still needs a decisive break above $65.28 to confirm a stronger rally, according to the latest analysis framework from FXEmpire.

The Fed under Warsh has made it clear that policy will remain data-dependent, meaning the next inflation and employment reports will be critical for the metals' trajectory. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains a central geopolitical variable influencing oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand. Market participants are anticipating faster repairs to Gulf infrastructure, with Saudi Arabia working to restore key pipeline capacity, which has weighed on crude. However, shipping through the strait remains constrained, and the pipeline disruption is not yet fully resolved.

Brent crude slipped to roughly $103.48 per barrel, while US WTI traded near $100.65. The gold setup continues to look conflicted: lower oil prices directly ease inflation pressures and help pull yields down, but unresolved Gulf shipping risks keep providing a geopolitical bid under the metal.

Equities attempt a recovery

Global stock markets were broadly stronger ahead of the US open, with S&P 500 futures up 0.8%, Dow Jones futures rising 0.7%, and Nasdaq futures gaining 1.1%, as investors attempted to repair the selloff triggered by Wednesday's Fed announcement. European bourses also advanced, led by banks and tech shares, while Asian markets put in a mixed performance. The bounce is being driven by cheaper oil and lower yields, but the Fed's hawkish tilt means risk appetite could quickly deteriorate if crude or longer-dated Treasury yields push higher once again.

Key levels to watch

Spot gold's upside targets: a reclaim of the $4,354.00 resistance level, followed by $4,403.00 and then $4,433.00. On the downside, bears are eyeing a break below $4,283.00, with further support at $4,256.00 and then $4,217.00. First resistance sits at $4,354.00, second at $4,403.00; first support is at $4,283.00, second at $4,256.00.

Spot silver's upside targets: a firm hold above $65.28, followed by $65.98 and then $66.74. On the downside, a break below $64.40 would open up $63.45, with further support at $62.57. First resistance is at $65.28, second at $65.98; first support is at $64.40, second at $63.45.