The first seven months of 2026 have shown a strong performance in Hong Kong's mid-to-high-end residential property market, with transaction volumes for homes priced between HK$10 million and HK$50 million approaching nearly 90% of the full-year total for 2025. This comes as lower interest rates, reduced stamp duties, and rising rents have redirected buying power from smaller, cheaper units to more expensive properties.

Centaline Property Agency Ltd data reveals that since May 2025, when HIBOR-based mortgage rates fell below the ceiling rate, the subsequent decline in interest rates has helped Hong Kong home prices bottom out and begin a recovery. The CCL index has rebounded nearly 20% from its low point. In the first seven months of 2026, the number of primary and secondary private residential transactions for properties valued between HK$1,001 and HK$50 million has reached approximately 90% and over 90% of the 2025 full-year figures, respectively, outperforming the broader market. This has led to an increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end properties, while the share of smaller units priced at HK$5 million or below has fallen. The proportion of luxury homes above HK$50 million remained stable.

The secondary market has been particularly hot. Secondary private residential transaction registrations in the first seven months of 2026 totaled 30,175, representing 75.8% of the 39,821 transactions recorded in the full year of 2025. This is higher than the 64.4% of the primary market total for the same period, indicating that the secondary market is more active than the primary market this year. Within the secondary market, transactions for properties in the HK$3,001 to HK$5 million and HK$1,001 to HK$3 million ranges reached 427 and 4,588 units, achieving 98.8% and 93.7% of the 2025 full-year totals, respectively. As a result, their share of total transactions increased by 0.3 and 2.9 percentage points to 15.2% and 1.4%, reaching 6-year and 4-year highs. Although home prices have stopped falling, they are still more than 15% below the historical peak of 2021. The decline in interest rates, banks' push for mortgage discounts, and the relaxation of mortgage caps to 70% and the removal of stress tests in 2024 have attracted many buyers to upgrade to larger units, stimulating a wave of relocation and investor demand that has boosted activity in the mid-to-high-end secondary market.

Secondary transactions for units priced between HK$501 and HK$10 million totaled 11,386, reaching 79.0% of the 2025 full-year figure, with their share of total transactions rising by 1.5 percentage points to 37.7%. In contrast, secondary transactions for units priced at HK$5 million or below only reached 68.5% of the 2025 full-year total, underperforming the market. Their share of total transactions fell by 4.8 percentage points to 44.9% in the first seven months, ending a four-year streak of gains. Meanwhile, secondary transactions for luxury homes above HK$5 million reached 80.1% of the 2025 full-year total, with their share remaining stable, fluctuating between 0.5% and 0.7% for six consecutive years.

On the primary market side, the first seven months of 2026 saw 13,227 primary private residential transaction registrations, reaching 64.4% of the 20,525 total for the full year of 2025. Among these, primary transactions for mid-to-high-end units priced between HK$1,001 and HK$3 million and HK$3,001 to HK$5 million reached 3,131 and 460 units, hitting 88.9% and 85.5% of the 2025 full-year totals, respectively. This caused their share of total transactions to increase by 6.5 and 0.9 percentage points to 23.7% and 3.5%, reaching 5-year and 6-year highs. Primary transactions for units priced between HK$501 and HK$10 million totaled 7,879, reaching 79.0% of the 2025 full-year figure, with their share approaching 60% at 59.6%, an increase of 11 percentage points, marking a 6-year high. However, primary transactions for smaller units priced at HK$5 million or below only reached 23.5% of the 2025 full-year total, significantly underperforming the broader market. Their share of total transactions dropped sharply from nearly 30% to just 10%, a decline of 18.4 percentage points. The improving market and sustained price increases have led developers to shift their sales strategy from low-price promotions for volume to price-focused sales. New projects are gradually being priced higher, and the primary market is now dominated by mid-to-high-end properties, pushing the proportion of small, affordable units to a 5-year low since 2021. During the market peak in 2021, the proportion of low-priced primary units was also only around 10%. As for luxury primary transactions above HK$5 million, they reached 63.9% of the 2025 full-year total, with their share remaining relatively stable, maintaining a level of 2.8% for three consecutive years.