PMI Drops to 49.0% in February 2026, Indicating Contraction

Deep News
03/04

China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February 2026 registered at 49.0%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling a contraction in manufacturing sector activity.

Breaking down by enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises stood at 51.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the prior month, remaining above the 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction. In contrast, the PMI for medium and small enterprises was 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, falling by 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points compared to January, and staying below the critical point.

Among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, all—including production, new orders, raw material inventories, employment, and supplier delivery times—were below the 50% mark. The production index came in at 49.6%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing output. The new orders index was 48.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened market demand. The raw material inventory index registered 47.5%, edging up 0.1 percentage point, suggesting a slight narrowing in the rate of inventory reduction. The employment index was 48.0%, down 0.1 percentage point, pointing to a modest decline in hiring sentiment among manufacturing firms. The supplier delivery time index was 49.1%, falling 1.0 percentage point, indicating that delivery times from suppliers lengthened compared to the previous month.

In the non-manufacturing sector, the business activity index for February was 49.5%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point from January, showing a minor improvement in non-manufacturing activity levels. By sector, the construction business activity index was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points, while the services business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. Within the services sector, industries such as accommodation, catering, culture, sports, and entertainment maintained high activity levels with indices above 60.0%, whereas capital market services and real estate sectors remained below the expansion-contraction threshold.

The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a pullback in market demand. For construction, the new orders index rose 2.1 percentage points to 42.2%, while the index for services fell 1.4 percentage points to 45.7%. The input price index reached 50.9%, up 0.9 percentage points, suggesting an overall increase in input costs for non-manufacturing businesses. The input price index for construction dropped 2.9 percentage points to 49.1%, while the index for services increased 1.5 percentage points to 51.2%. The selling price index held steady at 48.8%, remaining below the threshold and indicating that overall selling prices were lower than the previous month. The construction selling price index fell 0.6 percentage points to 47.6%, while the services selling price index edged up 0.1 percentage point to 49.0%. The employment index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, down 0.1 percentage point, reflecting a slight decline in hiring activity. The construction employment index rose 1.4 percentage points to 42.5%, while the services employment index fell 0.4 percentage points to 46.6%. The business expectations index stood at 55.0%, down 1.0 percentage point but still in high-expansion territory, indicating sustained confidence among non-manufacturing firms. The construction expectations index increased 1.1 percentage points to 50.9%, while the services expectations index decreased 1.3 percentage points to 55.8%.

The composite PMI output index, which measures overall activity in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, was 49.5% in February, down 0.3 percentage point from January, indicating a general slowdown in business activity across the Chinese economy.

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