Industry data for June shows a continued recovery in express delivery service prices, with STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) and YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) leading in shipment volume growth. Overall industry pricing remains supported, and under "anti-internal competition" policies, price rivalry is expected to be relatively orderly. The firm recommends J&T Global Express Limited (01519) for its strong overseas operations and solid domestic performance. It maintains a positive outlook on leading firm ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (02057) and YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH), which continue to dominate the industry's performance divergence. STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) is highlighted for its excellent performance in both volume and price. SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) is noted for its stable foundation and optimized shipment structure. Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) is recognized for its narrowing growth rate gap and continuously improving customer structure. Key points from the report are as follows.

Overview of the June Data

On July 17-18, 2026, the State Post Bureau and various express delivery companies released their operational data for June. According to the State Post Bureau, nationwide express delivery business volume in June increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while business revenue rose by 7.7%. The average revenue per piece for the industry grew by 3.8% compared to the same period last year.

Company Performance Breakdown

For listed companies in June 2026, industry prices trended upward, with STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) and YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) leading in volume growth. In terms of express delivery revenue, the figures were: SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) at 20.02 billion yuan > YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) at 5.88 billion yuan > STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) at 5.48 billion yuan > Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) at 4.58 billion yuan. The year-on-year revenue growth rates were: STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) +26.1% > Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) +10.3% > YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) +6.4% > SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) +0.3%.

Business volumes were: YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) 2.85 billion pieces > STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) 2.59 billion pieces > Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) 2.17 billion pieces > SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) 1.39 billion pieces. The year-on-year volume growth rates were: STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) +18.6% > YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) +8.6% > Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) -0.05% > SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) -4.9%.

Market shares were: YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) 16.3% > STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) 14.8% > Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) 12.4% > SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) 7.9%. Year-on-year changes in market share were: STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) +1.8 percentage points > YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) +0.7 percentage points > Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) -0.5 percentage points > SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) -0.7 percentage points.

Average revenue per piece was: SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) 14.41 yuan > STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) 2.114 yuan > Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) 2.108 yuan > YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) 2.06 yuan. The year-on-year growth rates for average revenue per piece were: Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) +10.4% > STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) +6.4% > SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) +5.4% > YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) -2.0%.

Analysis and Outlook

From an industry perspective, express delivery revenue growth from January to June 2026 was 7.3%, surpassing the 4.8% growth rate of online retail sales of goods for the same period, indicating an improvement in the industry's pricing power. The industry's volume growth in June was 3.8%, primarily affected by slowing consumption growth impacting demand and a high base from the same period last year. Volume growth is expected to recover as the year-on-year comparison base declines in July.

At the company level, volume growth rates continued to diverge in June, while average revenue per piece generally recovered. STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) maintained a high growth trajectory, driven by the integration of Daniao and organic growth. YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. (600233.SH) gained market share, though its average price faced slight year-on-year pressure. Yunda Holding Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ) saw its volume remain largely flat year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing for consecutive months and a significant increase in average price. SF Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ) continued to optimize its product mix, focusing on high-value shipments.

Key Risks to Monitor

Potential risks include shipment volume growth falling short of expectations, fluctuations in industry policies, and a significant rise in fuel prices.