Short-term market risk aversion will be the primary driver of gold prices amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, while multiple fundamental factors are expected to reinforce a clear upward trend for gold in the medium to long term. Specifically, military confrontations between the U.S. and Iran have triggered a sharp rise in market risk-off sentiment, pushing gold prices higher amid fluctuations. The near-term movement of gold will largely depend on the intensity of Iran's retaliation and the potential spread of the conflict. If Iran collaborates with forces such as Yemen's Houthis, Iraqi Shia militias, and Lebanon's Hezbollah to target U.S. and Israeli military assets, further escalation in geopolitical tensions could sustain gold's upward trajectory. Additionally, if Iran intensifies its retaliatory measures by blocking critical waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, disruptions in shipping combined with reduced energy supplies would create a dual driver of避险 and inflation, potentially leading to a breakout rally in gold prices. However, if the conflict remains localized and a ceasefire is quickly reached, market避险 premiums are likely to fade rapidly, causing gold to relinquish much of its recent gains. Investors should also monitor the possibility of diplomatic de-escalation arising from technical negotiations in Vienna, as gold prices are expected to remain highly volatile in the short term.

In the medium to long term, the "America First" policy of the Trump administration is expected to continue driving competition for overseas interests and resources, with "regime change in Iran" potentially being a key objective. This could lead to ongoing adjustments, fragmentation, and reorganization of the global political and economic order, with heightened international uncertainty serving as a major support for gold prices. Furthermore, the restructuring of the international monetary system by 2026 is anticipated to become a dominant theme in global assets. Against a backdrop of weakening U.S. dollar credibility and rising U.S. fiscal risks, the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts further reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. At the same time, strong gold purchasing demand from central banks worldwide remains elevated. Strategic gold acquisitions by various nations, coupled with deepening de-dollarization trends, collectively reinforce the foundation for gold's medium to long-term appreciation. It is important to note that gold prices have already seen significant gains in the short term, and investors should remain cautious of potential pullbacks if geopolitical tensions ease. While chasing rallies may carry risks, gold's medium to long-term value as a hedge against global systemic risks remains prominent, given that underlying supportive factors—such as geopolitical uncertainty, dollar weakness, and central bank buying—have not fundamentally changed.