Oil stocks in Hong Kong experienced a broad decline. At the time of writing,
Recent market sentiment has been influenced by speculation over a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. According to reports citing U.S. government officials, President Trump has indicated a willingness to end military actions against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Meanwhile, Iran's National Security Committee has passed a bill proposing fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The legislation includes financial arrangements in Iranian rials, a ban on passage for U.S. and Israeli ships, and provisions to maintain Iran's and its armed forces' dominant position in the area.
Citic Securities noted in a research report that recent market activity reflects bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Looking ahead, the Strait of Hormuz remains a key factor driving marginal fluctuations in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices have not fully priced in the risk of a closure of the strait. If the strait remains closed, oil prices are expected to rise further. Over the longer term, even if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, the associated risk premium is likely to be embedded in oil prices, keeping them at elevated levels.