Abstract

Boeing will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, 2026 Pre-Market. The market expects sequential operational improvement from commercial aircraft deliveries, with consensus anticipating revenue growth and narrowing losses as quality and production normalization progress through the quarter.

Market Forecast

The market’s current consensus for Boeing’s fourth quarter highlights a revenue estimate of $22.42 billion, a forecast adjusted EPS of -$0.40, and an EBIT estimate of $0.54 billion, with revenue’s year-over-year growth expected at 38.33% and EPS improvement implied versus last year’s losses. Segment outlook points to stronger commercial aircraft deliveries and a stable services contribution, while defense margins remain in focus. The most promising segment is Commercial Airplanes, supported by a substantial backlog and accelerated deliveries; revenue in the prior quarter was $11.09 billion, and management commentary pointed to continued operational improvements with expected sequential delivery strength into the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Boeing’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $23.27 billion, a gross profit margin of -10.21%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -$5.34 billion, a net profit margin of -22.94%, and adjusted EPS of -$7.47, with year-over-year revenue growth of 30.44% and adjusted EPS improving against the prior year’s deeper losses. A notable operational highlight was reduced free cash flow burn coupled with improved delivery cadence, supported by 737 MAX monthly production stabilizing at 38 aircraft. Main business highlights showed Commercial Airplanes revenue at $11.09 billion, Defense, Space & Security at $6.90 billion, Global Services at $5.37 billion, and Other at -$0.10 billion, with strong year-over-year momentum in commercial driven by increased deliveries and services resilience in aftermarket volumes.

Current Quarter Outlook

Commercial Airplanes

Commercial Airplanes is expected to anchor the quarter with delivery-driven revenue and operational normalization across 737 MAX and 787 programs. Corporate commentary from the last call indicated 737 MAX production recovering to 38 aircraft per month and management intent to request an increase to 42 aircraft per month pending regulatory approval, which, if achieved, would lift near-term throughput and drive unit economics and cash conversion. The segment’s profitability is tied to reducing “traveled work,” rebalancing supply chain bottlenecks, and sustaining rate stability; the reported 50.00% reduction in traveled work signals lower rework costs and supports gross margin recovery. Demand visibility remains firm with approximately 6,600 unfilled orders and a book-to-bill conducive to sustained revenue, but margin recovery depends on the mix of higher-margin widebodies, learning-curve efficiencies, and minimizing abnormal costs tied to quality interventions.

Defense, Space & Security

Defense, Space & Security entered the quarter with improved program discipline and a path toward historical performance as key contracts move from development to production, which can mitigate prior charges and volatile margins. Institutional commentary highlighted the persistence of investment headwinds from legacy fixed-price development programs, but noted progress as production stabilizes and milestone deliveries align with cash recognition. The quarter will likely hinge on execution in programs like the E-7 Wedgetail and tanker sustainment, where congressional support and schedule stabilization provide revenue visibility; however, margin variability remains a near-term risk if new program shifts or supply chain constraints produce incremental costs. With the prior quarter revenue of $6.90 billion, a steadier production rhythm and minimization of one-time charges are essential for EBIT improvement, although the segment’s margin trajectory could lag the commercial recovery curve.

Global Services

Global Services continues to provide stable cash-generative support through aftermarket parts, maintenance, and digital solutions, underpinned by high-value contracts in diagnostics and fleet sustainment. The segment’s prior quarter revenue of $5.37 billion demonstrated resilience across airframe support, modifications, and mission readiness services, aligning with elevated flight-hour recovery and fleet utilization. For the current quarter, the services mix should deliver consistent margin support, helping offset variability in manufacturing segments and reflecting secular tailwinds from aging fleets and operator focus on reliability. The segment’s performance often benefits from recurring revenue streams, which supports consolidated EBIT stabilization and provides leverage to management’s goals for cash flow improvement into 2026.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will focus on whether Boeing can maintain delivery momentum while compressing abnormal production costs to lift gross margin closer to breakeven, given the prior quarter’s -10.21% gross profit margin. Commentary on regulatory engagement and rate increases from 38 to 42 aircraft per month for the 737 MAX can serve as a validation point for throughput and operational confidence. Cash flow trajectory is a critical lens; expectations of moving toward positive free cash flow are tied to delivery mix, services stability, and controlled inventory release, while any fresh program charges in Defense could temper EBIT. The market will also weigh management’s qualitative color on 787 delivery pacing, widebody pricing power, and the extent of traveled work reductions translating into tangible margin uplift.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional views skew bullish, with a clear majority of Buy ratings and constructive previews. Citigroup initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $265.00 price target, emphasizing leadership changes, reaffirmed long-term targets, and confidence in achieving $10.00 billion free cash flow by 2028, as well as improvement in Defense, Space & Security as contracts transition to production and continued strength in Global Services. UBS maintained a Buy rating with a $275.00 price target, noting operational improvements and delivery stabilization that support near-term earnings normalization. Jefferies reiterated a Buy at $275.00, highlighting delivery cadence and reduced abnormal costs as key margin drivers. Bernstein retained a Buy with a $267.00 target, focusing on backlog-driven visibility and the incremental benefits of rate increases on unit economics. Seaport Global reaffirmed a Buy with a $285.00 target, citing better-than-expected widebody deliveries and constructive management commentary regarding production quality improvements. RBC Capital maintained a Buy rating with a $250.00 target, emphasizing the recovery path and services stability. Meanwhile, Barron’s coverage summarized improved free cash burn trends and expectations for positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter and meaningful improvement through 2026, aligning with institutional previews that anticipate accelerating delivery throughput and stabilizing margins.

Collectively, the majority view anticipates a sequentially better quarter marked by revenue growth, narrowing losses, and an EBIT uplift, with the core debate centered on the pace of gross margin recovery and the durability of delivery rates amid supply chain and regulatory gating. The bullish stance rests on backlog support, improved production quality indicated by reduced traveled work, and services resilience that cushions earnings while Defense programs gradually normalize. As a result, consensus previews frame Boeing’s fourth quarter as a step forward on its multi-quarter recovery arc, with investors looking for confirmation of higher 737 MAX rates, steady 787 deliveries, and cash flow approaching breakeven, alongside measured commentary on risk containment in Defense.