Since 2026, pork prices have continued their downward trend, making dishes like braised pork belly affordable for many, and pork stalls in markets an easy, no-brainer purchase. However, this situation is unfavorable for both large-scale pig farming corporations and individual farmers. Recently, the average selling price for live pigs in some regions has fallen below 5 yuan per jin, breaking through the red line of breeding costs, leaving pig enterprises and smallholders distressed as the industry finds itself in a deep winter. Nevertheless, the depths of winter are often not far from spring. Leading pig enterprises can rely on their capital, scale, and technological advantages to tough out the cycle, while individual farmers with weak risk resistance face being squeezed out under immense pressure.
The pig pen has been empty for two weeks. A junior high school classmate, Xiao Zhang, posted a message on WeChat saying the price for purchasing live pigs in his hometown had dropped to 4.9 yuan per jin. He expressed mixed emotions and considerable relief that he had decisively left his newly built pigpen behind early last year to seek work elsewhere, stating, "Otherwise, I'd be trapped in it now." His hometown is a mountainous county in western Hubei, where pig farming has long been a traditional way for farmers to increase income, mostly on a small scale, with very few operations reaching significant size.
My cousin is one such small-scale farmer. Roughly seven or eight years ago, he left construction work and returned to his hometown, building a large pigpen on his own land to start raising pigs. Initially, he adopted a self-breeding and self-raising model, strictly controlling the scale and selling promptly whenever a reasonable profit margin appeared. In 2020, when the average pig price surged to around 34 yuan per kilogram, he sold off his entire stock. He used the proceeds to buy a new apartment for his son in the county town and kept some funds for future development. That year, individual farmers generally profited, primarily because the African Swine Fever outbreak had drastically reduced capacity, leading to a shortage in market supply. At the peak, the average price for wholesale pork carcasses approached 40 yuan per kilogram.
Benefiting from this super cycle, the industry's profitability reached a historical peak, with profits almost guaranteed per pig sold, reaching as high as 1,500 to 2,000 yuan per head. Leading listed pig enterprises such as Muyuan, Wen's, and New Hope saw their performance surge dramatically. However, the high prices did not last long before beginning to decline. My cousin abandoned the self-breeding model and switched to buying feeder pigs for short-term fattening before selling, aiming to capture small price differences. Yet, even this flexible strategy could not withstand the severe losses faced by the entire industry in 2023.
The industry saw a slight recovery in 2024, prompting him to restock on a small scale, still adhering to a quick-in, quick-out strategy. By year-end, his accounts showed costs and revenues were essentially balanced. Last year, he held on for a long time while observing the market. Seeing the persistent weakness in pig prices, he had no choice but to sell all his remaining pigs before the year ended. He told me he doesn't dare gamble anymore.
My cousin informed me that the current local purchase price for external ternary live pigs is around 4.5 yuan per jin, and pork hind leg in the market costs only about 10 yuan per jin. "We can only wait a while longer to see if market prices will turn around," he said. This hesitation and wait-and-see attitude are common among small-scale pig farmers in townships, primarily due to concerns that restocking will lead to pigs becoming over-fattened, increasing breeding costs and ultimately leaving them passive in sales.
Industry realities confirm these worries. According to monthly data disclosed by Wen's, the company's average selling price for pigs dropped from 14.87 yuan/kg in March last year to 10.11 yuan/kg in March 2026, making it difficult to cover breeding costs. Last year, the company's breeding cost was 14.4 yuan/kg. In 2025, Muyuan, leveraging its scale and technological advantages, controlled its breeding cost to around 12 yuan/kg, with an average selling price for commercial pigs of about 13.5 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 17.3%.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the national annual average price for live pigs last year was 14.44 yuan/kg, down 9.2% year-on-year, the lowest since 2019. Estimates indicate the average profit per pig sold for the year was only 31 yuan, a decrease of 183 yuan compared to 2024. The significant profit shrinkage directly impacted corporate performance. In 2025, Muyuan's net profit fell 16.45% year-on-year to 15.812 billion yuan. This year, the company's average selling price for commercial pigs has continued to decline, reaching 12.57 yuan/kg, 11.59 yuan/kg, and 9.91 yuan/kg in January, February, and March, respectively.
A research report from Caitong Securities disclosed that as of April 3rd, under self-breeding and purchased piglet breeding models, the average loss per head in the pig farming industry was 381.52 yuan and 227.38 yuan, respectively. Facing continuously declining pig prices, Muyuan plans to further optimize costs, aiming to reduce breeding costs to 11.5 yuan/kg by 2026, striving to maintain relatively healthy cash flow during a cycle where prices might continue to fall.
When will the turning point for the live pig market arrive? A research report from Greenland Daha Futures judges that it primarily depends on the pace of capacity reduction within the breeding sector. In July 2025, relevant national authorities promoted the orderly reduction of the breeding sow inventory to optimize the supply-demand structure. By the end of last year, the national live pig inventory was 429.67 million head, and the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million head, a decrease of 1.16 million head year-on-year. However, this still exceeded the normal retention level set by authorities by approximately 3 million head, indicating that overcapacity persists. A full industry recovery will still take time.
The substantial fluctuations of the pig cycle are fundamentally due to market supply-demand imbalances. Leading pig enterprises can withstand losses relying on capital and scale advantages, while individual farmers with weak risk resistance are often the first to be eliminated. For individual farmers like my cousin, who inherently lack cost advantages and have weak bargaining power in the market, survival in the pig farming industry depends on seeking differentiation.
Looking at consumption patterns, Chinese residents' pork consumption is steadily declining. Data from the China Meat Association shows that the annual per capita consumption has decreased from 30.5 kg in 2023 to 26.6 kg in 2025. Meanwhile, high-quality proteins like beef, chicken, and fish continue to divert consumer demand. Despite this, market demand for high-quality pork remains robust, with tender, flavorful pork products being more favored. Native hybrid pork is gradually becoming a sought-after niche product.
In this细分赛道, leading brands have already emerged. Yi Hao Tu Zhu, a high-end pork brand under Guangdong Yi Hao Food, firmly leads the premium native pig market, demonstrating the market's recognition of high-quality pork. Closer to my cousin, Enshi Ling Hao Tu Zhu, a premium pork brand under Hubei Agricultural Development Group, has been selling well after launching on instant retail channels, accurately capitalizing on market trends.
Institutional research indicates that around 2025, pork consumption trends in first- and second-tier cities shifted from competing on price to prioritizing quality升级. Over 70% of consumers are willing to pay a premium for pork products that are antibiotic-free, slow-raised, or from ecological farms. Furthermore, many mid-to-high-end restaurants in cities are featuring native pork as a core quality ingredient, highlighting consumer demands for product safety and rich flavor.
Just a few days before speaking with me, my cousin had purchased several dozen native hybrid pigs. He is using his empty pigpen for a trial raising, expecting to sell them by the end of the year. Currently, the local purchase price for native hybrid pigs is around 6.5 yuan per jin, which is on par with breeding costs, making the farming pressure manageable. Moreover, he can sell most of the output through his local network of acquaintances. True to his usual approach, this is just a tentative test. If pig prices gradually recover, he might consider gradually restocking.
For individual farmers, squeezed by large-scale farming, choosing the right pig breed, thoroughly understanding local supply-demand dynamics, and consumption trends are key to avoiding price wars and securing stable profits. This is also the core foundation for surviving the fluctuations of the pig cycle.