Guojin Securities initiated coverage on COWELL (01415), assigning a "Buy" rating and setting a target price of HK$48.38. The firm forecasts COWELL's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach $191 million, $225 million, and $336 million for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 19x, 17x, and 11x, respectively. Based on a 24x P/E multiple for 2026, the target market capitalization is HK$41.99 billion.

COWELL maintains a deep partnership with Apple, benefiting from strong customer stickiness. In H1 2025, Apple contributed 98.1% of the company's total revenue. This loyalty stems from two key advantages: leveraging Luxshare Group's industrial chain resources for significant synergies and continuous capital expenditure to meet Apple's stringent supply chain demands on capacity and responsiveness.

The report highlights robust iPhone demand, with approximately 4 million units activated in China as of October 12 since launch. iPhone and iPad shipments are expected to enter a steady growth phase, providing a solid demand foundation. The annual iterative upgrades in iPhone camera modules present a clear growth driver. The value per unit for iPhone Pro Max camera modules has increased by about $37 from Series 13 to Series 16. The newly launched 17 Pro Max features a telephoto lens upgrade from 12MP to 48MP, sustaining annual value growth and boosting COWELL's revenue.

With Sharp gradually exiting the rear camera module supply chain, the competitive landscape is reshaping. Apple's need to balance supply chains and reduce costs, combined with COWELL's aggressive capacity expansion, positions the company to capture more share in ultra-wide-angle and periscope telephoto modules. By 2027, COWELL is expected to enter the higher-value main camera segment, unlocking new growth opportunities.