On Wednesday, June 10th, during the Asian morning session, spot gold opened at 4255 and continued its decline from the previous day. As of now, it has tumbled more than 1.9% to trade around $4180, hitting its lowest level since March 23rd. On Tuesday (June 9th), gold prices dipped to 4313 in early trading, stabilized and rebounded, faced resistance at 4351-4352 around midday and fell back. During the European session, it dropped to 4321 and fluctuated, surged to 4363-4364 during the US session before quickly weakening, broke below Monday's low of 4268, and hit a low of 4236 in the early morning, closing the day with a large bearish candle at 4260.

Key Fundamental Factors

Geopolitical Developments: Last night, US forces completed defensive strikes against Iran in response to the downing of a US Army Apache helicopter yesterday. The troops used precision munitions from US Air Force and Navy fighter jets to strike Iranian air defense systems, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. US forces remain vigilant and are prepared to defend against unprovoked aggression from Iran. A US official stated that the latest round of US strikes was intended to send a warning signal to Iran, and the US believes these strikes will not hinder negotiations aimed at ending the war. Iran responded today by using drones to attack a US military base in Kuwait. Previously, Iran had struck US Fifth Fleet facilities in Bahrain and a US Air Force base in Jordan.

Economic Data: The main focus today is the release of the US May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate at 20:30 (US time). The forecast for this round is 4.2% versus a previous value of 3.8%. If inflation data comes in higher than expected, it will further strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes, potentially pushing gold to test the 4100 level. If inflation falls more than expected, it could trigger a technical rebound. Later, at 22:30, the US will release the EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 5th, Cushing crude oil inventories, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the gold daily chart structure, it was originally anticipated yesterday that the market would continue its weak adjustment. A decline to the support level at the lower boundary of the range was still within expectations. However, the continued decline after today's opening directly pierced through the lower boundary of the range, which is beyond expectations. Nevertheless, this precisely reflects that the current market sentiment towards gold remains pessimistic. Gold itself currently lacks the momentum for a rebound, and technically, the daily moving averages are in a bearish alignment and diverging downwards, which also increases the risk of continued declines.

Combining this with the gold one-hour chart, the current decline temporarily represents a further release of market sentiment. Watch how the market digests and chooses its direction during the day. Intraday, focus on the resistance and struggle around 4230-35 and 4270. On the downside, support directly retreats to the previous low near 4100. For now, expect digestion within this large range with overall conditions leaning weak. However, attention must also be paid to potential disruptions from tonight's US CPI data.

Today's Trading Recommendations

Short Positions: If there is an intraday rebound testing pressure around 4235-40 during the day session, consider a short-term short position, with a stop-loss at 4250. The target is to look for a reduction around 4200, then adjust the stop-loss to breakeven. Hold the remaining position with the expectation of seeing 4160-50 and 4100.

Long Positions: Focus on testing the support near 4100 intraday. If the impact of tonight's CPI data on gold is not significantly bearish, and if the price can stabilize around this level showing signs of halting the decline, then assess based on the actual situation whether it is worth attempting a short-term long position.