Haitong International released a research report, adjusting its net profit forecast for PRADA (01913) to €890 million/€970 million/€1.05 billion for 2025-2027 (previously €972 million/€1.088 billion/€1.191 billion), reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.5%/8.7%/7.6%. The target price was revised to HK$62.9 (-24%), based on a 2025 P/E of 20x (previously 25x) and an exchange rate of 1 euro = HK$9 (previously 8.7). The "Outperform" rating was maintained.

In Q3 2025, PRADA reported revenue of €1.33 billion, up 9% year-on-year (at constant exchange rates). By brand, Prada revenue declined 1% year-on-year, narrowing from a 4% drop in Q2 2025, while Miu Miu revenue rose 29% year-on-year—though growth slowed from 105% in the same period last year, which had the highest base. Miu Miu still demonstrated resilience, with Q2 2025 revenue up 40%. Prada's leather goods segment accelerated, while Miu Miu's ready-to-wear continued to lead growth.

Regionally, Q3 2025 revenue in Asia-Pacific/Europe/North America/Japan/Middle East grew by +10%/+2%/+20%/-1%/+10% year-on-year, respectively. Compared with Q2 2025 (+11%/+4%/+14%/-8%/+25%), North America outperformed despite a higher base, driven mainly by Prada and reduced spending by North American consumers in Europe. The Greater China market showed slightly better-than-expected holiday performance, but no clear signs of retail recovery were observed. The company expects the industry will struggle to return to the high-growth levels seen in the past decade.

Looking ahead, Haitong remains optimistic about Miu Miu's growth potential, citing: (1) sustained high-quality growth, with most expansion coming from same-store sales despite a high base; (2) significant store expansion opportunities, as Miu Miu had only 147 directly operated stores globally at the end of 2024, compared to over 300 for YSL and BV; and (3) differentiated brand positioning, which may benefit from the industry trend of entry-level luxury consumers diversifying from high-end brands.

Prada showed sequential improvement in Q3 2025. Moving forward, the brand aims to broaden its consumer base by increasing creative investment in leather goods, enhancing marketing for iconic products like Galleria, and expanding its recycled nylon line to strengthen entry-level offerings.