South Africa's agricultural exports reached $4.1 billion in the second quarter, marking a 10% year-on-year increase and setting a new record for the period, according to data released by Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. This translates to roughly R65 billion in local currency terms.

Cumulative exports for the first half of 2026 totaled $7.8 billion, up 11% from the same period last year. The export growth was driven by two key factors: higher actual shipment volumes of agricultural products and a recovery in international prices for certain commodities. During the same quarter, South Africa imported approximately $2 billion worth of agricultural goods, a 12% year-on-year increase, resulting in a trade surplus of $2.1 billion for the quarter, up about 9% annually.

Sihlobo noted that while South Africa's agricultural sector has shown solid momentum heading into 2026, the industry remains highly dependent on exports and faces rising global trade tensions and geopolitical economic uncertainty. This means the sector must protect its traditional markets while aggressively pursuing new export destinations in the months ahead.

Citrus, corn and fruit remain export mainstays

Looking at the commodity mix, South Africa's primary agricultural exports in Q2 included citrus fruits, apples and pears, corn, wine, along with dates, figs, pineapples, avocados, guavas and mangoes. Wool, sugar, fruit juices, table grapes and nuts also contributed significantly to export earnings.

The composition of South Africa's agricultural exports has shifted notably over the past two decades. Traditionally, grains such as corn were key export products, but recent years have seen expanded citrus orchards and steady growth in the fruit and nut industries, elevating the role of high-value horticultural products in the export portfolio. On the import side, South Africa primarily purchases wheat, palm oil, poultry meat and whisky.

Africa accounts for 40%, EU 21%

In terms of destination markets, Africa remains the most important export market for South African agricultural products, absorbing roughly 40% of total exports in Q2. Key products shipped to other African nations include corn, apples and pears, processed foods, sugar, fruit juices, soybean oil, wine and sunflower oil.

Asia and the Middle East together represent about 24% of export value, with major purchases covering citrus, apples and pears, corn, wool, nuts, sugar, lamb, beef, berries, wine and soybeans. Among these, the Middle East imported approximately $332 million worth of South African agricultural products in Q2, up 1% year-on-year and accounting for about 8% of total agricultural exports. The EU accounts for roughly 21%, the Americas about 5%, and other regions including the UK approximately 10%.

This structure demonstrates that while US trade policy has drawn considerable attention recently, South Africa's core agricultural export markets remain concentrated in Africa, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

US exports rebound 56% quarter-on-quarter but still below last year

The United States accounts for only about 3% of South Africa's total agricultural exports, a modest share, yet recent tariff policy changes have thrust this trade relationship into the spotlight. Q2 exports to the US grew approximately 56% compared to Q1, though they remained below the same period in 2025. Major exports included citrus, grapes, wine and fruit juices.

The Agricultural Business Chamber noted that the effective tariff rate on South African agricultural goods entering the US has fallen to 12.5%, down from roughly 30% previously. This easing of tariff pressure has improved price competitiveness for some South African products in the American market and underpinned the significant quarterly recovery in Q2 exports. However, given the high export base from a year earlier, current shipment volumes to the US have not yet fully returned to previous levels. The Q2 data therefore reflects more of a "quarterly repair" than a full recovery in US demand.

Port efficiency gains support export growth

Logistics improvements have also played an important role in South Africa's strong agricultural export performance this year. Sihlobo pointed out that certain logistics bottlenecks at Durban port and ports in the Eastern Cape have eased, creating more favorable conditions for timely agricultural shipments. For perishable goods like citrus and fruit that require strict transit time controls, port congestion, cold chain interruptions and container turnaround efficiency all directly impact export competitiveness.

However, the Port of Cape Town remains one of the major logistics constraints facing the industry. The Western Cape is a key fruit and wine producing region, with substantial volumes of high-value agricultural goods requiring export through Cape Town. The Chamber believes this port still needs further operational improvements to reduce logistics costs and delay risks for agricultural exporters.

Record corn harvest supports exports, while El Ni帽o poses next-season risk

On the production side, South Africa's corn harvest reached record levels this season, providing additional support for this year's agricultural exports. Ample domestic supply has not only increased the volume of corn available for export but has also reinforced South Africa's position as a major food supplier to southern Africa.

However, the Chamber also warned that weather risks for the next agricultural season are rising. Market expectations currently point to the potential formation of an El Ni帽o event, which typically brings drier conditions to parts of southern Africa. If rainfall declines significantly, South Africa's next-season corn and other crop production could fall from this year's highs.

Whether the record Q2 2026 export performance can be sustained will therefore depend not only on overseas demand, trade policy and port efficiency, but increasingly on weather conditions in the next agricultural production cycle.

Overall, South Africa's agricultural sector continued its strong export momentum in the first half of this year, with Q2 exports hitting a record $4.1 billion and a trade surplus of $2.1 billion. The African market continues to provide the foundational demand, while US exports have shown clear quarterly improvement following tariff relief. In the near term, improved port operations and record corn production will continue to provide support, but entering the next agricultural season, drought risks from El Ni帽o could become the key variable determining whether export growth remains sustainable.