Hog Futures

On Monday, hog futures displayed a pattern of weakness in near-term contracts but strength in deferred contracts. The main LH2611 contract fell 0.21% from the previous settlement price, temporarily trading at 11,800 yuan per ton. According to data from My Agriculture Network, the national average price for outgoing ternary hogs stood at 10.89 yuan per kilogram, down 0.05 yuan from the previous day. The lowest price was recorded in Xinjiang at 10.08 yuan per kilogram, while the highest was in Fujian at 12.39 yuan per kilogram, excluding Hainan.

From a fundamental perspective, sustained industry losses have accelerated the pace of production capacity reduction, with an increase in sow culling. Statistics from My Agriculture show that the sample sow inventory in August declined 2.94% month-on-month, a notably larger decrease than before. As a result, expectations of reduced supply pressure in the distant future have lent support to deferred contracts.

Looking at the medium term, based on earlier piglet birth data, theoretical slaughter volumes are expected to remain stable until next year's Spring Festival. With consumption anticipated to gradually increase, there are opportunities for marginal improvement in supply and demand dynamics. In the short term, as the peak season approaches, the industry enters a phase of active inventory accumulation. The average slaughter weight of hogs is gradually rising, which limits the upside potential for hog prices.

In summary, while theoretical supply and demand conditions are expected to improve gradually, spot prices may trend modestly upward in a fluctuating pattern. The futures market maintains a premium structure, making it difficult to establish a clear directional trend in the near term. For trading strategy, a range-bound approach is recommended.

Corn Futures

During Monday's night session, corn futures traded with a weakening bias, with the main C2611 contract temporarily at 2,290 yuan per ton, showing little change from the previous settlement price. In the spot market, according to Huiyi Network, corn prices at northern and southern ports remained relatively stable. Corn prices in Northeast China fluctuated narrowly, while prices in North China mostly declined.

Specifically, bulk corn shipped from northern ports was quoted at 2,250-2,270 yuan per ton, and container corn at 2,280-2,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. In Guangdong's Shekou port, bulk corn was priced at 2,420-2,440 yuan per ton, and container corn at 2,430-2,450 yuan per ton, also unchanged. Sprouted wheat was quoted at 2,450 yuan per ton for direct pickup. In Northeast China, mainstream purchase prices ranged from 2,140 to 2,250 yuan per ton. In North China, where prices mostly declined, mainstream purchase prices at deep-processing enterprises ranged from 2,250 to 2,350 yuan per ton. In Shandong, feed enterprises paid 2,380-2,420 yuan per ton for hog feed corn and 2,380 yuan per ton for poultry feed corn.

From a fundamental standpoint, old-crop corn inventories remain relatively ample. Combined with the approaching arrival of new-season corn, the overall supply-demand balance leans toward surplus. On the demand side, poor profitability in hog farming has accelerated production capacity reduction, suggesting feed consumption will trend lower. Additionally, as corn and soybean meal prices strengthen, wheat has become more cost-effective relative to corn, which will continue to erode corn's share in feed formulations.

Overall, the domestic corn market maintains a relatively loose supply-demand balance. However, given changes in the external environment, overly bearish positioning on new-season corn is not advisable. A range-bound trading approach is recommended.

Apple Futures

On Monday, apple futures rose modestly. The main contract AP2701 traded in a fluctuating pattern, closing at 7,433, up 0.49% from the previous trading day, with open interest increasing by 6,000 lots to 110,000 lots. According to Zhuochuang Information, as of September 7, cold storage apple prices in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong remained stable. For grade 80 and above first and second-grade farmer stock, the mainstream price for red-striped apples was 3.5-3.6 yuan per jin, while striped apples were priced at 3.8-4.0 yuan per jin. Merchant stock for red-striped apples ranged from 3.7-4.2 yuan per jin, and striped apples from 4.2-4.7 yuan per jin. First to third-grade farmer apples of grade 80 and above were priced at 2.5-3.0 yuan per jin, with general goods at 2.0-2.3 yuan per jin, priced according to quality. Red General apple prices have declined.

The primary pricing driver for futures remains the production volume and quality of the new-season apple crop. In the short term, it is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see approach.

Sugar Futures

Raw sugar futures were suspended from trading after recently rebounding to near a 16-month high this week, driven by tightening supply that has reinforced expectations of a global supply deficit for the 2026/27 season. Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture reported that sugar production in the central-southern region of the world's largest producing country fell 7.9% in the first half of August. The El Ni帽o phenomenon poses a significant risk to sugar output in major producing countries India and Thailand. Zhengzhou sugar futures traded with slight fluctuations during the night session.

In the short term, domestic prices will primarily follow external markets, though high domestic inventories will continue to exert downward pressure. A short-term trading approach is recommended.