International gold markets have recently gained fresh upward momentum. A new report from Morgan Stanley suggests that, despite geopolitical fluctuations, gold prices could climb towards $5,200 per ounce in the medium term, reflecting major institutions' long-term optimism for safe-haven assets. According to CPT Markets, while short-term prices are influenced by falling oil prices and easing risk aversion, the rationale for medium to long-term allocation has been further reinforced. The analysis indicates that the current rebound is supported by a confluence of factors, including the approaching interest rate cut cycle, diversification of central bank reserves, and the evolution of the monetary system.

In terms of macroeconomic policy, major central banks generally maintain a cautious stance of inaction, with markets closely monitoring the pace of potential rate cuts. CPT Markets notes that investment banks are progressively raising their medium to long-term gold price targets, reflecting a consensus on expectations for lower real interest rates and a weaker US dollar trend. The institution points out that major banks, including UBS, have previously set long-term targets near $5,900 per ounce, and with Morgan Stanley's recent upward revision to $5,200, this creates multiple layers of support for the gold price. The pace of gold purchasing by global central banks remains uninterrupted, and the trend of reserve diversification in emerging markets continues.

From a technical perspective, after stabilizing near the lower boundary of its trading range, gold's daily chart shows a gradual recovery above short-term moving average resistance. The MACD indicator shows marginal improvement in momentum, and the KDJ indicator has risen from oversold territory, suggesting that bearish forces have been temporarily exhausted. Institutions are also observing that physical gold demand in Asia remains stable. Marginal changes in ETF holdings, physical demand linked to wedding seasons in India and the Middle East, and the COMEX gold futures delivery ratio are key indicators for gauging genuine capital flows. Additionally, the structure of gold options open interest, the gold-silver ratio, and the relative performance of mining stocks serve as supplementary metrics for assessing market risk appetite and capital sentiment. Cross-referencing these multi-dimensional signals can enhance the quality of market analysis.

CPT Markets anticipates that gold prices may experience consolidation within a range of $4,500 to $4,900 per ounce in the short term, while possessing the potential to approach the $5,200 target over the medium to long term. The institution emphasizes that investors should fully understand the characteristics of precious metals as cross-cycle assets, monitor key indicators such as real interest rates, the US dollar index, and global risk sentiment, avoid chasing rallies or selling on dips around data releases, and instead build positions gradually according to their individual risk tolerance to navigate the current policy observation period steadily.