As US stocks approach a rare six-month winning streak, investors face a tough choice: take profits or increase exposure?

Data shows the S&P 500 has traded above its 50-day moving average for 125 consecutive days—its longest streak since 2011. Over the past three decades, the benchmark index has only seen three longer rallies.

While rallies rarely end simply due to duration, the index's 38% surge since early April has added $17 trillion in market value, leaving valuations stretched and positioning elevated.

Bulls point to historical trends favoring November as the start of the market's strongest six-month period. However, after one of the best six-month runs since the 1950s, questions remain about whether year-end gains are already priced in.

Dan Wantrobski, Janney Montgomery Scott's technical strategist, warns the S&P 500 could drop up to 10% before year-end. "We're in a danger zone for another sell-off. Any near-term pullback might be mild, but without correction, we risk a sharper adjustment in 2025 as traders eventually deflate bubbles," he noted.

For technical analysts tracking moving averages, the S&P 500's sustained position above support signals strong momentum. In 2011, during debt ceiling battles, the index stayed above its 50-day MA for 130 days. The current 125-day streak could become the second-longest this century if it continues through next Wednesday, trailing only the 149-day record from February 2007.

The all-time record stands at 257 days during the dot-com bubble from January 1995 to January 1996.

Critical events loom this week: tech earnings and the Fed's rate decision. The FOMC statement arrives at 2 AM Beijing time Thursday, with Chair Powell's remarks scrutinized for policy clues.

Earnings season peaks with over 40% of S&P 500 companies by market cap reporting, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) post-close Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday.

Concerns mount as another key technical indicator—the 200-day moving average—approaches extreme levels. The index currently sits 13% above this long-term support at 6,097 points. Historically, such gaps preceded sell-offs in 2011, 2018, and 2021. In July 2024, a 15% premium triggered a brief summer slump amid yen carry-trade unwinding.

Rich Ross of Evercore ISI remains cautiously optimistic, noting the S&P 500 has frequently traded 10%+ above its 200-day MA in recent years, often consolidating before new highs. He highlights November's historical strength—averaging 2.5% gains versus 0.6% for other months over 30 years.

"The bullish case? Even at record highs, sentiment remains somewhat bearish due to trade war fears and credit risk concerns," said Ross, maintaining a 7,400 year-end target (7.4% above Tuesday's close). "Arguments exist on both sides, but fighting this momentum now seems unwise."