Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that US employment data fell short of expectations, boosting market expectations for Fed rate cuts in September, with liquidity potentially becoming marginally looser. Meanwhile, US tariff policies present uncertainties regarding inflation, and gold prices may fluctuate at high levels. For industrial metals, the market awaits gradual recovery in peak season demand and positive macroeconomic stimulus both domestically and internationally, with prices expected to gain upward momentum.

Guotai Haitong Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

**Cyclical Assessment**: US August employment data unexpectedly disappointed, increasing downside risks in the labor market. Markets expect the Fed to likely resume rate cuts in September, with liquidity potentially becoming marginally looser. Simultaneously, uncertainties persist regarding US tariff policies and inflation, suggesting gold prices may operate in high-level fluctuations. Recent domestic manufacturing sentiment has shown slight improvement, with positive macroeconomic policies worth anticipating, providing potential upward momentum for industrial metal prices. As the traditional peak season approaches, downstream processing utilization rates have already improved. The market awaits terminal demand recovery while supply-side disruptions remain, with supply-demand dynamics marginally improving, providing strong support for industrial metal prices.

**Precious Metals**: Focus on US inflation guidance for interest rate paths, with prices likely to fluctuate. US August non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined to 22,000 (previous: 73,000, expected: 75,000), ADP employment also fell unexpectedly, while unemployment rose to 4.3%. Downside risks in the US job market are increasing, elevating market expectations for Fed rate cuts in September. Additionally, on September 5th, Trump signed an executive order adjusting tariff implementation scope, including reducing reciprocal tariffs on certain goods to zero. US tariff policy uncertainties persist, and marginally looser liquidity provides support for gold prices. Furthermore, attention should be paid to upcoming US August inflation data. Under this gaming environment, precious metal prices will exhibit fluctuation patterns. In the medium to long term, US federal government debt risks persist, the dollar's status faces challenges, and under global monetary system reconstruction, gold will continue to perform well.

**Industrial Metals**: Awaiting peak season demand recovery and macroeconomic positive stimulus to boost prices. Macroeconomically, recent US data shows weakening labor markets, with Fed September rate cut probability rising again, approaching a liquidity inflection point. Domestically, August manufacturing PMI increased 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, with sentiment improving. Subsequent positive macroeconomic policies are expected to continue emerging, gradually repairing demand expectations and providing upward momentum for industrial metal prices. Additionally, the market remains in a gradual transition from off-season to peak season, with downstream processing utilization rates for major industrial metals improving. Some varieties face periodic supply-side disruptions due to maintenance and seasonal factors, potentially improving supply-demand dynamics marginally and providing price support.

**Risk Warning**: Downstream demand weaker than expected, massive supply-side releases, Fed rate cut process falling short of expectations, etc.