Oil prices surged on Thursday, with Brent crude closing above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Gold prices fell, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising oil prices that diminished prospects for monetary policy easing. Aluminum prices continued to climb due to supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts.

Crude Oil: Brent Settles Above $100 for First Time Since August 2022 Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, as millions of barrels of oil remained trapped in the Persian Gulf, causing one of the largest disruptions in oil market history. On Thursday, global benchmark Brent crude jumped 9.2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 9.7%, closing at $95.73, its highest level in nearly four years. Multiple ship attacks in the Arabian Gulf indicated that Iran's maritime disruption efforts were expanding beyond the critical Strait of Hormuz. At settlement: - April WTI crude rose 9.7%, settling at $95.73 per barrel - May Brent crude rose 9.2%, settling at $100.46 per barrel Market participants viewed Brent breaking this psychological barrier as increasing political pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war and curb soaring energy costs. Earlier, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons was "of much greater concern and importance" to him than oil prices. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News that the U.S. Navy would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz "as soon as military conditions permit." However, signals regarding when the strait might reopen remained inconsistent. Reports that Iran had allowed some vessels to pass through the key waterway and denied laying mines caused oil prices to pull back during regular trading. This followed a statement from Iran's new supreme leader that the passage should remain closed. Bloomberg News reported that the Trump administration planned to issue a temporary waiver of a maritime law requiring goods transported between U.S. ports to be carried on American-built ships. A 30-day Jones Act waiver would allow foreign tankers to help supply East Coast refiners with fuel from the Gulf Coast and other U.S. regions, aiming to curb rising oil prices. The report caused oil prices to pare gains. Enverus analyst Carl Larry stated, "Like releasing emergency reserves, easing the Jones Act is just a temporary fix." The longer the disruption lasts, "the less impact these actions will have on oil prices." Goldman Sachs warned in a research report updating price forecasts that oil prices could surpass 2008 peaks if crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain low throughout March. That year, Brent crude hit a high of $147.50 per barrel amid surging demand and stagnant supply.

Precious Metals: Gold Prices Decline Gold prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising oil prices due to the Iran war, which weakened the outlook for monetary policy easing. U.S. data showing a drop in weekly initial jobless claims further reinforced traders' expectations of reduced likelihood for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Bank, said, "Especially in recent days, it has become clear that the Fed will hold off. The question now is for how long." Holdings in gold ETFs have declined since the war began, with last week's drop being the largest in over two years. Some investors are liquidating gold positions to cover losses in other assets within their portfolios. As of 3:20 PM New York time: - Spot gold fell 1.7% to $5,086.11 per ounce - Spot silver fell 1.1% to $84.8072 per ounce

Base Metals: Aluminum Holds Near Highest Levels Since 2022 Aluminum prices retreated slightly after hitting their highest level in nearly four years, as traders assessed the scale of supply disruptions in the Middle East amid the ongoing Iran war. Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 1.7%, settling at $3,516.50 per tonne, its highest since March 30, 2022. Aluminum prices have climbed significantly since the Iran conflict began, as the disruption affects supplies from the Persian Gulf, which accounts for approximately 9% of global production. On the supply side, there was some positive news on Thursday: Norsk Hydro announced that a major smelter in Qatar would avoid a full shutdown after securing natural gas supplies. However, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively still closed, plants across the region continue to face widespread disruptions in shipments of metals and raw materials. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, stated in a report that aluminum prices still have significant upside potential and could approach $3,700 per tonne. BMI added that "recent developments have significantly increased the likelihood of a more severe supply squeeze," projecting a deeper global market deficit of 1.06 million tonnes this year. At settlement: - LME copper fell 0.3% to $12,999.50 per tonne - LME aluminum rose 1.7% to $3,516.50 per tonne - LME nickel rose 0.3% to $17,742 per tonne - LME zinc fell 0.2% to $3,301.50 per tonne - LME tin fell 0.5% to $49,388 per tonne - LME lead rose 0.2% to $1,939.50 per tonne