The United States now anticipates that the oil supply disruption caused by the US-Iran war, amounting to roughly 600,000 barrels per day, will persist until the end of next year, as ongoing conflict impedes oil shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

According to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, an average of 4.9 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz in the second quarter of this year. In contrast, the daily volume was 21.6 million barrels in the fourth quarter of 2025, before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran.

These figures suggest that the signing of a so-called memorandum of understanding and a brief ceasefire did not significantly ease the market impact of this supply disruption, which is unprecedented in its severity within the history of the global energy market. Iran and Oman have yet to reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though officials indicate that negotiations are progressing.

As the conflict enters its sixth month, global consumers again face the risk of rising fuel prices and higher inflation. The EIA has raised its 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts by 3.7% and 5.4%, respectively, while its 2027 retail gasoline price projection is 6.5% higher than it was one month ago.

Due to ships turning off location signals, shipping activity is difficult to fully track, making it challenging to determine the real-time volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and estimates among market participants vary. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that over the past week, an average of about 9 million barrels of oil per day exited the Strait of Hormuz.

The agency also estimates that Middle East production outages fell to an average of about 5.5 million barrels per day in July, down from 7.5 million barrels per day in June. It forecasts that outage volumes will widen again to an average of 6.6 million barrels per day in the third quarter. The report assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi crude oil through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not led to additional outages. If this assumption holds, the agency expects that most production and trade activity may not return to pre-war levels until early 2027.