Caitong Securities Initiates Coverage on BILIBILI-W (09626) with "Buy" Rating, Expects Content Expansion and Monetization Boost

Stock News
2025/12/17

Caitong Securities released a research report stating that BILIBILI-W (09626) is a leading Chinese online video and content community platform. Starting with ACG content in 2009, it has expanded into diverse fields such as general knowledge and lifestyle, evolving into a comprehensive community. The company's content ecosystem, comprising PUGV, OGV, and live streaming, continues to broaden its user base while retaining users through interactive community culture and brand activities. As of Q3 2025, MAU reached 376 million (YoY +8%), with a 12-month retention rate of 80% for formal members.

Revenue for 2025–2027 is projected at RMB 30.41 billion, RMB 32.44 billion, and RMB 35.19 billion (YoY +13.3%, +6.7%, +8.5%), respectively, while adjusted net profit is estimated at RMB 2.14 billion, RMB 3.15 billion, and RMB 4.30 billion. The current price corresponds to a PE of 33.8x, 22.9x, and 16.8x for the respective years. Caitong Securities initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating, citing the following key points:

1. **High User Loyalty Driving Commercial Value**: The company monetizes through gaming, value-added services, and advertising. - **Gaming**: Leveraging its strong ACG roots, BILIBILI-W is diversifying into broader game genres. Its non-ACG SLG title *Three Kingdoms: Strategic Conquest*, launched in June 2024, became its fastest game to hit RMB 1 billion in revenue, driving a strong rebound in gaming income. - **Value-Added Services**: Steady growth, primarily driven by premium membership subscriptions. - **Advertising**: Ad load remains restrained, focusing on brand, performance, and native ads. With expanded vertical ad partnerships, Q3 2025 ad revenue grew 23% YoY to RMB 2.57 billion.

2. **Revenue Recovery and Profitability Improvement**: Gaming and advertising were key growth drivers in 2024, restoring high revenue growth momentum. H1 2025 revenue rose 21.62% YoY. Improved commercialization efficiency and cost control lifted gross margins since 2022, while expense ratios declined YoY, turning net profit positive at RMB 210 million in H1 2025 (adjusted net profit: RMB 920 million).

**Risk Factors**: - Increasing regulatory scrutiny on content platforms. - Intensified competition and challenges in balancing commercialization. - Dependence on hit content and sustainability risks.

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