According to local media reports from Zimbabwe, the Zimbabwean government has recently clarified a package of prerequisites for lifting the ban on lithium ore exports via an official letter from the Minister of Mines. In response, executives from several Chinese lithium companies operating locally stated that the specific quota plan has not been formally issued yet and negotiations are still ongoing, although progress is expected to be swift for leading enterprises.
Institutional analysis suggests that the current market reaction to the end of Zimbabwe's export ban represents a "sell the news" event, with the negative factor now priced in. The latest research reports indicate that based on production schedules for May and June, full-year demand growth is estimated at over 30%, potentially exceeding expectations, translating to a demand volume of approximately 2.1 million units.
On the supply side, potential disruptions include lepidolite mines (affecting 120,000-150,000 units), Zimbabwe's one-month ban (10,000-20,000 units), energy issues affecting Australian mines (30% of supply, currently limited impact), and conflicts in Nigeria (3%). This could reduce original supply by about 150,000 units, creating an undeniable supply-demand gap. The second quarter is viewed as the optimal period for this dynamic.
With lithium prices at 160,000, the industry's average valuation for 2025 is below 16x and around 10x for 2026, indicating potential for both price and valuation upside. Key factors include: 1) Short-term prices are at an extreme point of market speculation, with significant room for improvement based on fundamentals; 2) Yichun mines are progressively paying royalties, facing potential production halts for permit renewals; 3) Current perspectives are domestic-focused, but potential US efforts to influence lithium pricing and resumed negotiations with Chile could create an external catalyst for domestic prices. This essentially implies an embedded call option.
Domestic institutions are optimistic about the valuation premium for Chinese lithium mines, citing security, sustainability, guaranteed increments, and cost advantages. Related Hong Kong-listed lithium concept stocks include: Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696), Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (01772), LOPAL TECH (02465), and CNGR (02579).