On December 11, following the latest interest rate decision, the precious metals market maintained its volatile trend. RadexMarkets noted that gold prices remained largely stable during the early New York session, showing no significant fluctuations despite the anticipated policy adjustment. Meanwhile, silver retreated slightly from its earlier record highs but retained an overall upward trajectory. According to RadexMarkets, this stability reflects the market having already priced in the impact of policy changes.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting resulted in a 0.25% reduction in the key interest rate range to 3.50%–3.75%, aligning perfectly with market expectations. The policy statement emphasized that inflation may remain somewhat sticky, suggesting no immediate urgency for further rate cuts. RadexMarkets highlighted that investors are now shifting their focus to the upcoming press conference, as the Chair’s guidance on future policy direction will directly influence market pricing of the macroeconomic environment. External market factors, including a weaker U.S. dollar index and relatively firm crude oil prices fluctuating around $58.50 per barrel, alongside a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.166%, remain key variables affecting precious metals volatility.
Notably, the gold market operates primarily through spot and futures mechanisms. The spot market reflects immediate transaction prices, while futures lock in future delivery prices. Around year-end, liquidity tends to concentrate in the most active contracts due to position adjustments, with December gold futures currently being the most traded. RadexMarkets believes understanding this structure helps investors better interpret price movements relative to actual trading activity.
From a technical perspective, the bullish target for February gold remains a breakout above the contract and record high of $4,433.00, while bears aim to push prices below the critical support level of $4,100.00. Short-term resistance levels are positioned at $4,251.70 and $4,285.00, with support near $4,197.80 and $4,150.00, yielding a market strength score of 7.0. For silver, the March contract has broken out of a "bull flag" pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bullish technical structure. The next upside target for bulls is surpassing the key resistance at $65.00, while bears target a drop below the $57.00 support level. Short-term resistance lies at $62.14 and $63.00, with support at $60.00 and $59.00, scoring a strong 9.5, indicating significant bullish dominance.
Overall, RadexMarkets suggests that precious metals will continue to oscillate between macroeconomic policy expectations and technical ranges. Investors should monitor policy signals while incorporating technical levels to better navigate potential opportunities in this volatile market.