Orient Securities has issued a research report forecasting XIAOMI-W's (01810) earnings per share for 2025-2027 at RMB 1.63, 2.06, and 2.60, respectively (previously RMB 1.64, 2.10, and 2.61, with adjustments mainly to revenue and certain profit/loss items). Based on a 32x P/E valuation for comparable companies in 2026, the target price is set at HK$71.65 (using an exchange rate of RMB:HKD at 1:1.094), maintaining a "Buy" rating. Key points from the report include:

**Event**: According to XIAOMI's automotive division, September 2025 saw monthly vehicle deliveries exceed 40,000 units.

**Strengthened Product Innovation and Execution**: While some investors remain concerned about XIAOMI's technological innovation and execution capabilities, the report highlights significant improvements in R&D and manufacturing competitiveness, fostering a robust business ecosystem. The company's ability to innovate and scale production is expected to drive sustained growth across its smart living, automotive, and home segments.

**Automotive Deliveries Surpass 40,000 Units**: XIAOMI's auto deliveries first exceeded 30,000 units in July 2025 and further climbed to over 40,000 in September, demonstrating strong production ramp-up. With additional capacity coming online, delivery capabilities are projected to improve. On October 24, 2025, XIAOMI introduced a year-end purchase tax subsidy, allowing customers who lock orders by November 2025 to offset the 2026 tax difference through final payment deductions. These measures are seen as supportive for achieving annual delivery targets and laying a foundation for future growth.

**Stable Smartphone Market Share and Premiumization**: Canalys data shows XIAOMI maintained a 14% global smartphone market share in Q3 2025, ranking third worldwide. The newly launched XIAOMI 17 series, featuring innovations like rear screens (Pro/Pro Max) and super-pixel display technology (Pro Max), drove a 30% sales increase over the previous generation, with Pro models accounting for over 80% of sales.

**Risks**: Potential downside risks include weaker-than-expected smartphone sales, automotive segment performance, AI adoption delays, and declines in fair value of financial instruments.