Crude oil prices fluctuated with a net downward trend during the current domestic refined oil retail price adjustment cycle (from 24:00 on July 31 to 24:00 on August 14). The crude oil change rate has been running in negative territory, leading to expectations of a price cut. It is forecasted that the domestic refined oil retail price adjustment window at 24:00 on August 14 will open for a downward adjustment.

During the new round of the refined oil price adjustment window, tensions between the US and Iran have repeatedly escalated. Optimism over a potential agreement to reopen the Strait briefly lowered crude oil futures prices, but subsequent doubts about a peace deal triggered renewed concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East, pushing prices higher. However, a significant increase in US crude oil inventories later exerted downward pressure, causing prices to fall again. Influenced by these crude oil price swings, the crude oil change rate has remained in negative territory, and the retail price adjustment window is biased toward a reduction.

According to data monitoring models, as of the close on August 13, the 10th working day reference crude oil change rate was -5.22%. It is expected that gasoline and diesel retail price caps will be reduced by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per ton, respectively. In terms of per-liter price drops, 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel will decrease by 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan, respectively. The adjustment window is set for 24:00 on August 14, 2026.

If the downward adjustment of refined oil retail price caps is confirmed, refueling a typical 50-liter private car tank will cost 9 yuan less. For a private car traveling 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by about 13 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens (at 24:00 on August 28, 2026). For the logistics industry, a heavy truck traveling 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will see a fuel cost reduction of about 337 yuan before the next window.

After the adjustment window opens, commuting and travel costs for residents during the end of summer vacation will decrease, and fuel costs for industrial and service logistics will also be reduced.

Looking ahead, negotiations between the US and Iran on core issues remain divided, and the prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are unclear. Both sides are sticking to their positions, and the tense situation in the strait has not subsided. Current crude oil prices are fluctuating at relatively high levels. After recalculation, the crude oil change rate starts in positive territory, and the retail price adjustment window points to an upward expectation. The initial adjustment phase is expected to see an increase of about 150 yuan per ton. The next price adjustment window will be on August 28, 2026, at 24:00.