On April 21, spot gold opened lower in the previous trading session (Monday, April 20) before rebounding from its lows to close higher. Prices remained above the 100-day moving average. Geopolitical tensions over the weekend, including heightened rhetoric between the US and Iran, initially pressured gold lower at the open. However, subsequent buying interest and expectations of renewed negotiations this week supported a recovery in prices.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened lower in the Asian session at $4,791.67 per ounce, extending its decline to an intraday low of $4,736.64. It then found a bottom and began to recover, trading with a volatile but slightly upward bias throughout the day. During the US session, it reached an intraday high of $4,827.22 but failed to fully close the opening gap. The metal ultimately settled at $4,820.37. Compared to the previous Friday's close of $4,835.08, the day's trading range was $98.44, resulting in a net decline of $14.71, or 0.3%.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, April 21, spot gold opened higher, extending the previous day's rebound. The US Dollar Index, which opened higher on Monday but encountered resistance and closed lower, remains below its 200-day moving average, suggesting bearish dominance and a weaker outlook. This is supportive for gold. Additionally, oil prices are currently below their middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages, indicating a higher probability of volatile or downward movement, which may also limit the downside for gold. Therefore, the outlook for gold prices remains biased towards a volatile upward trend. The primary trading strategy is to favor long positions with short positions as a secondary approach.
Market participants will focus on key US data releases today, including the March Retail Sales MoM, February Business Inventories MoM, and the March Pending Home Sales Index MoM. Market expectations lean towards data that could be negative for gold. If the data meets expectations, gold prices may trend lower during the US session; otherwise, they are likely to remain volatile. For trading, a strategy of buying first and selling later within the day is suggested, with specific support and resistance entry points referenced in the technical analysis below.
Attention will also be on the US Senate Banking Committee hearing for the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. The term of current Chair Jerome Powell ends on May 15. If a successor is not confirmed, Powell will legally remain in office. A prolonged confirmation process or a successor who delays interest rate cuts further could pressure gold prices. Conversely, if Warsh, who is perceived as more dovish, is confirmed, it could boost gold prices.
Furthermore, former President Donald Trump's stance remains firm; he has stated he would dismiss Powell if he does not resign at the end of his term. Therefore, the intraday trading approach is still to initially favor a bullish rebound, then assess the impact of US data and event outcomes to determine whether to continue buying on a breakout above resistance or to look for a pullback upon encountering resistance.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold closed above its rising trendline in March, maintaining a bullish outlook. The monthly opening also remains within this upward trajectory. As long as prices do not close below this trendline, the prospect of new highs remains.
On the weekly chart, gold continued its rebound last week but failed to break above the resistance of the 10-week moving average, leaving open the risk of a corrective pullback towards the $4,450 area. However, prices have not broken below the support of the middle Bollinger Band and the 5-week moving average and have shown renewed strength. Personally, the probability of a breakout above the 10-week moving average appears higher than a breakdown, so the primary strategy remains bullish, awaiting a breakout above resistance for further strengthening.
On the daily chart, while gold is currently below the 60-day moving average, it remains above the 100-day moving average, making the direction unclear but offering numerous trading opportunities. In the short term, selling near the resistance of the 60-day moving average and buying near the support of the 100-day moving average are viable strategies. A breakout above the 60-day moving average resistance would warrant a shift to a long position, while a break below the 100-day moving average support would suggest waiting for a further pullback towards the 144-day or 200-day moving average support to consider long positions again.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level references are provided below. Final entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications. Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,800 or $4,780; resistance levels are around $4,843 or $4,860. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $78.70 or $77.70; resistance levels are around $81.50 or $82.40.