Novo Nordisk A/S shares gained on expectations that competition for its blockbuster obesity shot Wegovy will subside later this year.
The stock rose as much as 6.5% in premarket trading as investors looked past a trimmed financial forecast from the Danish drugmaker.
Novo is battling rival Eli Lilly & Co. for supremacy in the booming obesity space and losing patients to cheaper compounded copies of its best-sellers produced by some US pharmacies. Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen said he expects a step-up in the second half from business that had been going to compounders.
Potentially adding the benefits of treating a fatty liver disease to Wegovy’s label in the third quarter could also lead to more use of the drug, while a new contract with CVS Health Corp. will drive volume from July 1, he said.
US regulators in February said Novo’s sister drugs Wegovy and Ozempic are no longer in shortage, a decision that forces compounding pharmacies to stop copying the medicines. But the Food and Drug Administration gave the compounders a delay, meaning Novo is likely to feel the effect of the ruling from the second quarter.
Revenue will likely rise by as much as 21% and operating profit by as much as 24% at constant exchange rates this year, the Danish company said Wednesday. Novo had previously predicted increases as high as 24% and 27%. Wegovy sales fell short of estimates in the first quarter.
Despite being on the market first, Wegovy has been losing ground to Lilly’s competing drug Zepbound. Novo won a skirmish in the fight with Lilly last week, when CVS announced a deal to make Wegovy more widely available and move Zepbound off a list of preferred drugs.
Novo shares have struggled to gain momentum this year. In March, they had the worst month since 2002, and they fell again in April, presenting a buying opportunity.
Many analysts believe Novo’s long-term outlook depends on how well it can compete with Lilly’s slate of next-generation obesity medicines, including a pill called orforglipron that delivered promising results last month.
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