Securities industry earnings growth is expected to accelerate further in H1 2026, according to a research report. Market turnover, margin financing balances, asset management scale, financial asset holdings, and equity financing activity are all projected to increase year-on-year, driving improvement across major business segments. While the sector's return on equity (ROE) has rebounded to a relatively high level since 2016, its price-to-book (PB) valuation remains at a historical low, indicating that the valuation has not yet fully reflected the improvement in profitability. The combination of low valuations and profit growth provides a foundation for a valuation re-rating. It is recommended to focus on leading brokerages with high ROE levels and relatively low PB valuations. The main points of the report are as follows:
Profit Growth Momentum Expected to Continue in H1 2026, Revenue Growth Translating into Profits
Capital market activity is expected to remain robust in H1 2026. Increases in market turnover, margin financing balances, asset management scale, financial asset holdings, and equity financing activity are projected to collectively improve the main business lines of listed securities firms. The report estimates that the total operating revenue for 50 listed securities firms in H1 2026 will be approximately 3,464.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.1%. The net revenue growth rates for brokerage/credit/asset management/proprietary trading/investment banking businesses are forecast at +63.5%/+64.8%/+35.9%/+14.4%/+51.6%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be around 1,524.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%. With revenue growth and operating leverage effects, the net profit margin for listed securities firms in H1 2026 is expected to rise to 44.0%, with the annualized ROE improving to 9.5%.
Brokerage Business: Significant Turnover Growth, High Revenue Growth Expected to Continue
The combined stock and fund turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges for H1 2026 is estimated at 376.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 99.3%. The turnover for Q2 2026 alone is projected at 201.2 trillion yuan, a sequential increase of 15.0%. The strong performance of growth-oriented stocks in Q2 enhanced market returns and further boosted investor participation, pushing the average turnover level higher compared to Q1 2026. Net revenue from the brokerage business for listed securities firms in H1 2026 is forecast to be approximately 1,053.2 billion yuan, up 63.5% year-on-year.
Credit Business: Margin Financing Expansion Continues, High Net Interest Income Growth Anticipated
The average monthly balance of margin financing for the entire market in H1 2026 is estimated at 2.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%. The average monthly balance for Q2 2026 is projected at around 2.88 trillion yuan, up 8.2% sequentially. Active equity market trading and improved returns drove investor demand for financing, making the expansion of margin financing a primary driver for the growth in net interest income. Net interest income for listed securities firms in H1 2026 is expected to reach about 319.0 billion yuan, an increase of 64.8% year-on-year.
Asset Management Business: Further Growth in Assets Under Management, Accelerating Revenue Growth
The total scale of asset management products managed by securities firms by the end of H1 2026 is projected to reach 7.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0% and a 5.9% growth from the end of Q1 2026. Increased capital market activity has boosted client demand for asset allocation. Coupled with improved net asset values across various asset management products, the scale of securities firms' asset management business has continued the recovery trend observed since 2024. Net revenue from the asset management business for listed securities firms in H1 2026 is forecast at approximately 289.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%.
Proprietary Trading Business: Market Performance and Investment Scale Jointly Support Revenue Growth
The scale of financial assets held by listed securities firms by the end of H1 2026 is estimated to reach 8.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0% and a 5.3% growth from the end of Q1 2026. The overall upward trend in the equity market in Q2 2026, particularly the strong performance of growth stocks, provided a favorable environment for returns on directional investments and derivatives businesses. Fixed-income assets contributed relatively stable investment income. Net revenue from proprietary trading for listed securities firms in H1 2026 is projected to be around 1,348.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%.
Investment Banking Business: Recovery in Equity Financing, Continued Growth in Bond Underwriting
The combined fees from A-share IPOs and secondary offerings in Q2 2026 totaled 32.49 billion yuan, a 67.98% increase from Q1 2026. During the same period, corporate bond issuance volume reached 1,012.4 billion yuan, a sequential increase of 41.4%. The recovery in equity financing activity directly supports underwriting and sponsorship income, while continued growth in bond underwriting provides supplementary support to the investment banking business. Net revenue from the investment banking business for listed securities firms in H1 2026 is estimated to be about 238.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.6%.
Risk Factors to Consider
Risks include significant volatility in capital markets; a decline in market trading activity; underperformance of equity and bond markets; slower-than-expected growth in margin financing balances; slower-than-expected recovery in investment banking business; intensifying industry competition; and potential deviations between forecast assumptions and actual disclosed data.