November 19 – The recent sharp decline in Bitcoin may be approaching its conclusion. OEXN suggests this pullback aligns with historical cyclical patterns and is likely in its final stages. According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, this marks the third major correction of approximately 30% since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last year. Kendrick highlights that key market indicators, such as MicroStrategy’s adjusted net asset value (mNAV), have dropped to zero, signaling near-exhaustion of selling pressure. OEXN interprets this as a sign of weakening sell-side momentum, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.
Bitcoin fell below $90,000 on Tuesday, extending its nearly 30% retreat from October’s all-time high above $126,000. This downturn represents the deepest correction since the ETF launch, sparking debates over whether Bitcoin has entered a typical four-year cycle bear phase. OEXN views the drop as a predictable cyclical adjustment, urging investors to focus on underlying metrics rather than price volatility alone. Kendrick notes that post-ETF corrections have repeatedly matched this magnitude, closely mirroring historical patterns of third major pullbacks.
Key indicators, including sentiment and valuation metrics, have retreated to levels typical of historical bottoms. For instance, MicroStrategy’s mNAV has hit parity (1.0), while other metrics approach zero—suggesting sellers have largely unwound positions. OEXN sees these extremes as evidence that the sell-off is nearing exhaustion, creating conditions for a year-end recovery. Kendrick’s base case forecasts a rebound by year-end, a view shared by OEXN, citing improving market sentiment.
On-chain data reveals slowing realized losses among short-term holders and emerging capitulation signals—classic bottoming indicators. Bitcoin’s 3.8% rebound to around $93,000 on Tuesday further indicates easing selling pressure. OEXN concludes that historical trends and current metrics point to a significant near-term rebound opportunity, advising investors to monitor year-end market dynamics.