Zhongtai Securities has released a report affirming its “Buy” rating for POP MART (09992). Based on the third-quarter business performance and considering the company's strong potential with leading IP, the firm anticipates significant overseas expansion. Expected operating revenues for 2025-2027 are projected at 40.062 billion / 58.021 billion / 77.814 billion yuan (previously forecasted as 33.117 billion / 46.961 billion / 63.487 billion yuan), with adjusted net profits estimated at 14.002 billion / 20.361 billion / 27.687 billion yuan (previously 11.535 billion / 18.106 billion / 26.690 billion yuan). As a pioneer and leader in trendy toy culture and commercialization, IP is central to the company's operations. POP MART has established an integrated platform covering the entire supply chain of trendy toys, including artist discovery, IP operation, consumer outreach, and the promotion of trendy toy culture.
Key insights from Zhongtai Securities include:
1. Event: The company reported its third-quarter performance for 2025, with overall unaudited revenue expected to rise 245%-250% compared to the same period in 2024. Revenue from the Chinese market increased by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%.
2. Performance by Channels in China: Offline channels showed a year-on-year growth of 130%-135%, whereas online channels grew by 300%-305%.
3. Continued High Growth in Overseas Markets: - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow by 170%-175% year-on-year. - The Americas region is projected to see growth of 1265%-1270%. - Europe and other regions are expected to increase by 735%-740%.
Looking back at the third quarter, the online growth in China was remarkable, and the overseas market continued its rapid expansion. The company recorded over 300% online growth in Q3, significantly above the 212% seen in the first half of the year. This surge is attributed to the diverse offerings in the capsule machine channel, the exploration of new channels such as live streaming on Xiaohongshu, and the pace of revenue recognition for major products like LABUBU.
In overseas markets, the Americas experienced monthly fluctuations due to restocking cycles. The European market is anticipated to focus on development in untapped areas, particularly southern Europe, maintaining steady operations overall. The flagship store in Southeast Asia, launched in Bangkok, Thailand, on August 8, serves as a robust support for the brand.
Looking ahead, high growth is expected in the short, medium, and long term. As the fourth quarter approaches, the Chinese market enters a significant e-commerce promotion period, and North America begins its shopping season with Halloween. It is anticipated that with the release of new holiday products and the replenishment of existing major items, revenue will continue its upward trajectory. The outlook for 2026 indicates smooth operational improvement in stores in China and the Asia-Pacific region, with new business models continuing to evolve. The Americas market is expected to contribute to performance through store openings and diverse collaborations, while Europe and other regions have ample space for expansion.