Goldman Sachs Predicts Supercycle for VLCCs, Raises COSCO SHIP ENGY Target Price by 81%

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Goldman Sachs has issued a research report expressing optimism about the current supercycle in the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market. The firm forecasts that shares of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (600026.SH) A-shares and COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138) H-shares have potential upside of 36% and 51%, respectively, from current levels. This outlook is based on factors including tight vessel supply, oil inventory restocking, trade route diversions, and significantly enhanced pricing power resulting from increased market concentration in the VLCC sector.

The investment bank has raised its full-year 2026 average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate forecast for VLCCs from $80,000 per day to $150,000 per day. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has increased its 2026 and 2027 profit estimates for COSCO SHIP ENGY by 81% and 59%, respectively, projecting earnings of 13 billion yuan and 11 billion yuan. These figures imply return on equity of 23% and 19% for the respective years.

The target price for COSCO SHIP ENGY H-shares has been substantially raised by 81% to HK$29, while the target for its A-shares has been increased by 78% to 32 yuan. The bank maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock.

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