Express delivery stocks are trading higher. At the time of writing, shares of J&T EXPRESS-W (ASX: 01519) have risen by 5.38% to HK$8.81, while shares of ZTO EXPRESS-W (ASX: 02057) are up 5.07% to HK$180.3.

The positive movement follows reports that the industry's efforts to curb excessive competition, or "anti-internal competition," are yielding accelerating results. On the evening of June 30th, YTO Express announced its preliminary estimate for the first half of 2026, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders in the range of RMB 3.1 billion to RMB 3.4 billion. This represents a year-on-year increase of 69.34% to 85.73%.

In its earnings forecast, YTO Express attributed the expected strong performance to the industry's ongoing implementation of measures to combat excessive competition. It noted that competitive order is gradually improving, terminal pricing is undergoing a reasonable correction, collectively fostering a more favorable operating environment for the sector.

Analyst Perspective on the Sector Shift

Analysts suggest the short-term outlook is promising. They point to sustained efforts to stabilize and adjust prices, combined with a low base of comparison from the previous period, which could lead to significant profit recovery for smaller players in the industry. Leading companies are expected to benefit from a virtuous cycle, leveraging head office support, improved profitability at local network points, and enhanced service quality to achieve growth in both volume and price, thereby solidifying their market leadership.

Long-Term Industry Transformation

Looking further ahead, the industry is seen entering a new phase of high-quality development. This shift is underpinned by long-term policy constraints, increased market self-discipline, and limited incremental demand growth. The era of low-price, extensive expansion is considered over. Industry differentiation is expected to accelerate, with competition moving away from a singular focus on price wars towards a comprehensive contest involving service quality, cost efficiency, and digital capabilities. The new stage will be characterized by capacity consolidation and efforts to improve quality and reduce costs across the entire supply chain.