Avista Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Strategic Capital Allocation and Wildfire Resiliency

Earnings Call
11/06

[Management View]
Avista Corporation emphasized disciplined capital allocation, focusing on competitive solicitations and negotiations with large load customers. The company highlighted flexibility in project selection during the 2025 RFP process and strategic grid and regulatory actions to mitigate wildfire risks and align future rate plans.

[Outlook]
Avista reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, expecting Avista Utilities to be at the upper end of its range and consolidated results at the lower end due to valuation losses. The company plans $3.7 billion in capital spending from 2025 to 2030, with a 6% annual growth rate, and identified up to $500 million for potential projects between 2026 and 2029.

[Financial Performance]
Year-to-date consolidated earnings were $1.01 per diluted share, down from $1.44 in 2024. Q3 2025 earnings were $0.36 per diluted share. Avista Utilities' year-to-date earnings increased nearly 15% over 2024. The company expects long-term earnings growth of 4%-6% from the midpoint of guidance.

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: On the $80 million equity needs for 2026, would Avista consider divesting other businesses to fund utility growth?
Answer: Avista plans to use its periodic offering program for equity needs, not considering significant asset sales. Additional spending opportunities might slightly change equity needs but not significantly.

Question 2: Does the 6% rate base outlook include incremental CapEx opportunities, and how does it affect the long-term earnings range?
Answer: Incremental CapEx opportunities could push growth above the 4%-6% range, depending on large load projects and additional transmission.

Question 3: How does Avista manage external risks like inflation and power costs in multiyear rate plans?
Answer: Avista has the option to refile rate plans if off track due to inflation or investment opportunities. Power supply resets are expected annually to address cost changes.

Question 4: Is there a power cost drag expected in 2026?
Answer: Without changes to the current mechanism, a power cost drag is expected, though it may not be as severe as in 2025.

Question 5: How does the mark-to-market process work for other businesses?
Answer: There is a quarter lag in reflecting investment values, with Q3 reflecting Q2 values. Avista is optimistic about improvements in clean energy investment values.

Question 6: What is the mix of debt and equity financing for potential incremental CapEx?
Answer: The base capital plan involves $120 million in debt and $80 million in equity. Incremental capital is expected to be roughly fifty-fifty.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts showed interest in Avista's strategic capital allocation and management of external risks. Management maintained a positive tone, emphasizing disciplined financial strategies and optimism about future opportunities.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 |
|-------------------------------|---------|---------|
| Consolidated Earnings (per share) | $0.36 | $0.23 |
| Year-to-Date Earnings (per share) | $1.01 | $1.44 |
| Avista Utilities Earnings (per share) | $1.03 | N/A |

[Risks and Concerns]
Key risks include potential valuation losses in non-utility investments, power cost drags, and external economic factors like inflation and interest rates. Regulatory changes and wildfire risks also pose challenges.

[Final Takeaway]
Avista Corporation is strategically positioning itself for future growth through disciplined capital allocation and proactive regulatory and wildfire risk management. While facing valuation losses and external economic pressures, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, driven by potential large load projects and strategic investments in grid resiliency and capacity expansion.

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