Abstract

Hexpol AB will report fiscal results on May 04, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview compiles the latest quarter’s performance, management’s guidance translated into current-quarter forecasts, and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to a softer quarter driven by weaker volumes and mix. For the current quarter, projections indicate revenue of 4.92 billion in SEK, an estimated year-over-year decline of 5.61%; EBIT is expected at 740.33 million in SEK with an 8.20% year-over-year decline; and EPS is forecast at 1.563 in SEK, down 8.44% year over year. Forecast commentary implies pressure on gross profit per unit and a modestly lower adjusted EPS versus last year. Main business exposure remains centered on HEXPOL Compounding, where demand normalization and selective pricing are expected to stabilize utilization. The segment with the best upside remains higher‑value engineered formulations tied to transportation and industrial customers, although year-over-year growth is likely mixed near term.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous reported quarter, revenue was 4.25 billion in SEK, gross profit margin was 19.58%, net profit attributable to the parent company was 339.00 million in SEK with a net profit margin of 7.97%, and adjusted EPS was 0.98 in SEK, reflecting a 3.92% year-over-year decline. Management delivered cost control as product mix softened, while lower volumes weighed on operating leverage and year-over-year comparisons. The main business showed HEXPOL Compounding revenue of 3.91 billion in SEK and HEXPOL Engineered Products revenue of 343.00 million in SEK, with mix effects suggesting steadier demand in core compounding and a slower pace in engineered products.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Compounding revenue and margin trajectory

HEXPOL Compounding remains the principal revenue driver, and the company’s quarter is likely to be defined by throughput and pricing discipline in this unit. With revenue concentration above 90% last quarter, even modest changes in order intake and inventory restocking among automotive and general industrial customers can move consolidated margin. The latest forecast still embeds a revenue decline year over year, but sequential patterns suggest stabilization if customer inventories remain balanced. Cost management on energy and raw materials should help protect gross spread, yet a weaker mix could cap expansion, keeping gross margin around the high‑teens.

Engineered Products and specialty mix

Engineered Products provides a smaller but higher‑value contribution and is the most sensitive to late‑cycle industrial demand. The near‑term growth opportunity centers on specialty rubber and polymer solutions that command better pricing power, but conversion depends on backlog conversion rates among transport and industrial clients. A cautious capital spending environment could delay new awards, though a firm book in replacement and maintenance‑related demand can buffer downside. If the sales mix tilts toward specialty and application‑rich orders, segment contribution margin could outpace the consolidated average even as absolute revenue remains a smaller base.

Stock‑price swing factors for this quarter

Earnings sensitivity this quarter will hinge on pricing/mix versus raw‑material inputs and the pace of volume normalization. A narrower gap between list prices and input costs would support EBIT flow‑through; conversely, any discounting to protect volumes could pressure the estimated 740.33 million in SEK EBIT. Order patterns from transportation and industrial customers are another swing factor, with restocking or new program ramps offering upside to the revenue estimate of 4.92 billion in SEK. Finally, currency translation against the Swedish krona can influence reported results and EPS, amplifying moves if demand surprises in either direction.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent commentary, the balance of opinions trends cautious, with institutions highlighting volume softness and mix headwinds; the prevailing view expects a modest year‑over‑year decline in revenue and EPS aligned with current estimates. Analysts emphasize that stabilization in compounding orders and disciplined pricing could set a floor for margins, but they look for clearer signs of industrial demand recovery before turning more constructive. The cautious stance centers on the risk that lower utilization tempers gross margin progression, keeping adjusted EPS near the 1.56 in SEK forecast while the company navigates late‑cycle dynamics.