The International Energy Agency has recently cautioned that global oil demand growth this year will be slower than previously anticipated. Despite supply disruptions in January leading to reduced output, the agency still forecasts a significant surplus in the global market. In its monthly oil report, the IEA projected that global supply in 2026 would exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day. This figure remains largely unchanged from last month's forecast. The surplus, equivalent to nearly 4% of global demand, is higher than any other prediction.

Following the report's release, the global benchmark Brent crude traded below $70 per barrel. Despite tensions between Iran and the United States driving prices up by approximately 14% since the beginning of the year, the market saw a reversal from its earlier bullish trend.

The IEA attributed the market shift to escalating geopolitical conflicts, severe winter storms and extreme temperatures in North America, and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan.