According to the latest research from the Gaogong Industry Institute (GGII), China's lithium battery cathode material shipments are projected to reach 5.025 million tons in 2025, marking a sharp 50% year-on-year surge and doubling the 2.48 million tons recorded in 2023. Shipments are forecast to grow further to over 6.5 million tons in 2026, indicating the continuation of high industry prosperity. The core drivers include the resonance of multiple factors such as sustained growth in downstream demand, stabilization of upstream raw material prices, and breakthroughs in technological iteration.
Traditional mainstays continue to lead, while new materials experience explosive growth, making 2025 a pivotal year of key advancement for the lithium battery cathode material industry, with its growth rate ranking among the highest across the lithium battery industry chain. The specific performance of sub-sectors is as follows: Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) maintains a dominant position with shipments of 3.87 million tons (up 58% YoY), accounting for 77.4% of the total. This is primarily attributed to its dual advantages in cost and safety within the power battery and energy storage sectors. The rapid growth of the global new energy vehicle market in 2025 drove power battery shipments to 1.1 TWh; simultaneously, energy storage lithium battery shipments exceeded 600 GWh, further amplifying the demand volume for LFP.
Ternary material shipments reached 830,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. In terms of product structure, the NMC 6-series dominates ternary materials used in domestic new energy vehicles, while the overall share of the 8-series and 9-series has declined, and the share of the 5-series has decreased rapidly. In the digital lithium battery sector, the shift towards high-nickel content is progressing relatively faster. Notably, customer concentration for ternary materials continues to increase, with leading battery enterprises enhancing their bargaining power over the supply chain, thereby squeezing industry profit margins.
Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO) delivered a standout performance: shipments in 2025 reached 125,000 tons, up 19% year-on-year. Influenced by factors like CVD silicon carbon, which boosts battery energy density, increased power capacity in digital products, and robust demand for digital products driven by national subsidies, LCO cathode material shipments experienced rapid growth.
New materials saw explosive growth: Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate (LMFP) shipments leapt from 8,000 tons in 2024 to 30,000 tons, a staggering year-on-year growth rate of 275%; Lithium-Rich Manganese-Based (LRM) materials found gradual application in segments like solid-state batteries, with shipments increasing to 4,000 tons. The core reasons for this growth are: 1) LMFP's significant advantages in reducing ternary battery costs and enhancing safety, coupled with continuous optimization of its processing performance, have led to simultaneous volume increases in both digital and power applications, with blended applications in ternary materials becoming an important implementation scenario. 2) LRM benefits from the cost-performance advantage brought about by rising cobalt prices; under the trend of cobalt reduction, its performance advantages are further highlighted.
At the beginning of 2026, prices for core upstream raw materials for lithium battery cathode materials saw a widespread increase. Metal cobalt experienced the most dramatic surge, skyrocketing from 168,000 yuan/ton to approximately 460,000 yuan/ton, an increase exceeding 170%; ferrous sulfate prices doubled; lithium carbonate prices rose nearly 60%; while materials like manganese tetroxide, purified phosphoric acid, and technical grade monoammonium phosphate saw increases ranging from 10% to 40%.
The recovery in raw material prices has driven cathode material prices to bottom out and rise, compounded by increases in processing fees. GGII anticipates that the average price of cathode materials in 2026 will be more than 30% higher than in 2025.