On August 13, global shipping major Maersk released its second-quarter results for 2026, driven by robust demand, rising spot freight rates, and growth across all business segments. The company posted a strong performance, with revenue climbing 20% year-over-year to $15.8 billion, up from $13.1 billion. The ocean freight division was the primary growth engine, contributing an additional $2 billion in revenue. Specifically, ocean freight revenue rose 23%, with EBIT reaching $935 million, compared to $229 million a year earlier and a negative $192 million in the first quarter of 2026. Loaded volumes increased 4.1%, primarily driven by Asian exports, while average freight rates surged 22%. Vessel utilization remained high at 96%.

Based on the second-quarter results and improved visibility for the remainder of the year, Maersk raised its full-year 2026 guidance. It now expects underlying EBITDA of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion, up from a previous range of $8 billion to $10 billion. Underlying EBIT is forecasted at $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion, compared to the earlier $2 billion to $4 billion. Meanwhile, COSCO Shipping Group reported that from January to June, the Chancay Terminal handled 200,000 TEUs of container throughput, a 70.94% year-over-year increase. Bulk and general cargo throughput reached 987,000 tonnes, up 41.2%, including 350,000 tonnes of breakbulk cargo (up 114.73%), 593,000 tonnes of bulk cargo (up 11.32%), and 44,000 tonnes of ro-ro cargo (up 340%). The Chancay port, developed by COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919) (which holds a 60% stake) in partnership with a Peruvian local firm, is a key link in the Asia-Latin America Land-Sea Corridor. Shanghai Port, a core starting point for this corridor, is a major hub for domestic vehicle exports, shipping Chinese-made cars to Chancay for distribution to Peru and other Latin American markets.

"The situation in the Middle East is unlikely to ease soon. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait not only control 70% of global oil shipments but also 30% of container traffic. The blockage of the Red Sea route forces shipping companies to take longer detours, increasing voyage distances. Meanwhile, war risk insurance premiums have soared from 0.25% to 12% of vessel value, creating significant cost pressures," said Wang Guowen, research director at the China Development Institute's Logistics and Supply Chain Management Institute. He noted that current route instability and port congestion are consuming more capacity, and as long as geopolitical tensions persist, freight rates on these routes will remain elevated.

However, global logistics provider C.H. Robinson noted that many companies moved shipments forward this summer to hedge against potential tariff changes, pulling demand from the traditional peak season in the second half of the year into May to July. With this "rush to export" wave largely concluded, market demand has begun to ease. Spot freight rates are declining from highs, and capacity on some routes is becoming more readily available. Yet, Wang Guowen argued that while the global container freight index has fallen for several consecutive weeks, this does not signal a broad market cooling. The earlier rush to export shifted the peak season forward, shortening booking cycles from three to four weeks to one to two weeks, which has alleviated market tightness. "This is a structural rebalance driven by an early peak and a pre-season slack period鈥攁 temporary adjustment, not a fundamental market downturn," he added.

A research report from CITIC Securities suggested that both demand and cost factors are weakening in the short term. The earlier rush to export has exhausted future cargo volumes, creating a demand vacuum, while falling oil prices have reduced shipping companies' operating costs, diminishing their incentive to maintain high freight rates. These combined factors are driving the decline in freight rates for the second half of 2026. Over the medium to long term, the resumption of Red Sea navigation remains a decisive variable. Once normal passage resumes, the capacity currently diverted around the Cape of Good Hope will return, significantly expanding effective supply. Overall, container freight rates are expected to face pressure in the second half of 2026. Looking further ahead, the interplay of tariff policy debates, geopolitical disruptions, and global port congestion continues to elevate supply chain uncertainty, weakening traditional cyclical patterns and increasing volatility. Nevertheless, the long-term demand growth backdrop and structural supply constraints remain intact, providing a base for freight rates to stay at relatively high levels.

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SITC (01308): On August 12, JPMorgan issued a report initiating coverage with an "overweight" rating, citing the company's high-density and stable layout in Asia, diversified customer base covering Greater China, Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia, prudent capital allocation strategy, and industry-leading operating cash flow, net cash position, and high dividend payout ratio.

COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919): The company operates nearly 700 container shipping sales and service points globally, managing 291 international routes, 56 China coastal routes, and 84 Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River feeder routes, covering 569 ports in approximately 142 countries and regions. Its self-operated container fleet has a capacity exceeding 2.92 million TEUs.

OOIL (00316): Orient Overseas (International) Limited is an investment holding company primarily engaged in container shipping and logistics. It operates through two segments: container transport and logistics, covering global routes including the Pacific, Atlantic, Europe-Asia, Australia-Asia, and intra-Asia trades, and others.

PACIFIC BASIN (02343): The company focuses on owning and chartering handy-size and supramax dry bulk carriers, specializing in global minor bulk commodity shipping. It owns a fleet of 115 handy-size and supramax dry bulk vessels and operates a total of around 243 owned and chartered ships.