Morgan Stanley has released a research report stating that it believes CHINA RES LAND (01109) stock price will experience an absolute rise within the next 30 days. The bank maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock with a target price of HK$39.3. Morgan Stanley estimates an 80% or higher probability ("highly likely") for this scenario.

The optimism stems from CHINA RES LAND's strong mall operations, which drove better-than-expected same-store sales and rental income growth in October (up 17% YoY), lifting cumulative rental growth for the first ten months of the year to 13%. If the wealth effect in the stock market continues to boost high-end consumption, Morgan Stanley expects full-year same-store sales growth to remain above 10% despite a higher base in Q4, with rental growth reaching 13%–14%.

With improved operating leverage, Morgan Stanley is increasingly confident that recurring profit contributions will rise to around 50% of core earnings this year (compared to 41% in 2024). Based on its sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, the bank believes CHINA RES LAND deserves a higher valuation (currently trading at 8.2x forward P/E).