CICC released a research report stating that AI server power supplies represent the next hundred-billion-dollar market. According to calculations, the market size is expected to grow rapidly from 2025E-2027E, with module/chip market size CAGR projected at 110%/67% respectively. Core beneficiary segments are concentrated in PSU, PDU, BBU, and DC-DC (PDB+VRM) components. The firm believes that with GaN/SiC penetration, 800V HVDC+SST architecture implementation, and widespread adoption of intelligent power management, leading manufacturers' market share and performance are expected to improve, while second-tier manufacturers may capture overflow orders.
CICC's main viewpoints are as follows: The firm believes that future core growth in the AI server power supply industry chain will mainly concentrate in five directions: 1) PSU and DC-DC (VRM+PDB): Benefiting from GaN/SiC substitution of traditional silicon devices, value content is expected to increase significantly under high power density trends; 2) HVDC+SST architecture: Led by NVIDIA, expected to ramp up from 2027, bringing power architecture upgrades and value content elevation; 3) PDU: As VR300 NVL 576 single-cabinet power approaches 600kW, expected to upgrade from traditional power distribution units to core components combining high power density and intelligence; 4) BBU: Expected to transition from optional to standard configuration as AI training demands for continuity increase, with market space steadily expanding; 5) Capacitors and inductors: Passive components are also expected to continuously benefit from power density improvements and high-voltage DC trends.
The firm calculates that AI server power module market size (PDU, AC-DC, DC-DC) is projected at $7.4 billion/$15.0 billion/$32.5 billion for 2025E/2026E/2027E respectively, with CAGR of +110%. Among these, AI server power chip market size is projected at $5.5 billion/$9.6 billion/$15.4 billion for 2025E/2026E/2027E respectively, with CAGR of +67%.
Regarding value content: 1) Calculated by chip standards, in NVL72 server power system value content, PSU accounts for approximately $9,647, BBU approximately $7,200, PDB approximately $4,500, and VRM approximately $5,783. 2) Calculated by module standards, HVDC power modules are approximately $90,000, AC-DC power modules approximately $33,000, and DC-DC power modules approximately $46,000.
The firm believes AI server power supplies are expected to evolve along three major directions in the future: 1) Accelerated penetration of third-generation semiconductors like GaN/SiC, bringing higher energy efficiency and lower unit power consumption costs; 2) 800V HVDC and Solid State Transformer (SST) architecture gradually ramping up from 2027, promoting high-voltage DC centralization trends, with manufacturers possessing system-level integration capabilities expected to see market share growth; 3) Rapid penetration of intelligent power management and digital control, helping customers reduce energy consumption and operation/maintenance costs in high-power AI scenarios, expected to strengthen power supply manufacturers' customer stickiness and pricing power.
Risks include intensified industry competition, server shipment volumes falling short of expectations, and industry upgrade progress lagging behind expectations.