Non-ferrous Metals Stocks Lead Declines in Hong Kong Market as Middle East Conflict Puts Central Banks in Policy Dilemma

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昨天

Non-ferrous metals stocks were among the biggest decliners in the Hong Kong market. At the time of writing, CHIFENG GOLD (06693) fell 21.63% to HKD 32.98; SD GOLD (01787) dropped 6.56% to HKD 30.46; CHALCO (02600) declined 5.29% to HKD 10.57; and JIANGXI COPPER (00358) decreased 5.09% to HKD 34.28. The escalation of conflict between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent crude oil above USD 110 per barrel. Several central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, recently held interest rate meetings and uniformly adopted a wait-and-see approach, indicating that the ongoing Middle East tensions are complicating monetary policy decisions. A research report from Guotou Securities noted that as the U.S.-Iran conflict persists and oil prices continue to rise, the market has begun pricing in the possibility of no interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, with potential rate hikes in the first half of next year. Precious metals and industrial metals are highly sensitive to macroeconomic interest rates, leading to a sell-off and an overall decline in the non-ferrous metals sector. Another report from China Securities Co., Ltd. suggested that if the economy eventually enters a recession, gold is expected to perform relatively well and could be prioritized for allocation after liquidity shocks subside. Additionally, surging oil prices are accelerating the shift from traditional energy sources to new energy, thereby boosting copper demand. Meanwhile, potential disruptions to aluminum supply amid the U.S.-Iran conflict have been overshadowed by current panic sentiment, making it an undervalued sector.

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