Last week (October 20-24), international gold prices retreated from highs, marking a second consecutive weekly decline. Spot gold opened at $4,072.80 per ounce, hitting a low of $3,886.57 and a high of $4,109.16 before closing at $4,003.23, down $108.98 or 2.65% for the week. Despite the pullback, gold still posted a 3.76% gain in October, extending its monthly winning streak to three months.

The decline was driven by easing trade tensions, which reduced gold's safe-haven appeal, triggering sustained selling pressure. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone during its rate cut dampened expectations for further easing in December, pushing gold below the $4,000 level. However, lingering geopolitical risks continued to underpin demand for gold.

Looking ahead, key factors influencing gold prices include the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, employment and inflation data, Fed officials' commentary, and broader political-economic uncertainties. These will determine whether gold can break out of its current consolidation range.

**Fed's Hawkish Stance Disappoints Markets** During last week's "Super Central Bank Week," the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% and announcing an end to balance sheet reduction by December 1. However, Chair Jerome Powell's unexpectedly hawkish remarks during the press conference dashed hopes for a December rate cut, injecting uncertainty into markets.

Powell emphasized that a December rate cut was "not a done deal," likening the current policy environment to "driving in fog" where slowing down is prudent. He also noted growing dissent among officials favoring delayed easing.

Reflecting this divide, Kansas City Fed President Schmid and Dallas Fed President Logan publicly opposed recent rate cuts. The policy meeting itself saw two dissenting votes—one advocating a 50-basis-point cut and another supporting unchanged rates.

Following Powell's comments, market expectations for a December rate cut fell to 65% from 83%, while year-end 2025 rate projections rose 4 basis points to 3.04%.

**Data Vacuum and Private Sector Indicators** With the U.S. government shutdown extending into its second month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is unlikely to be released. Traders will instead rely on private-sector data, including ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment figures, Challenger layoff reports, and consumer sentiment surveys, to gauge labor market and inflation trends. Weak readings could revive bets on a December rate cut.

**Trade Optimism vs. Geopolitical Risks** Gold faced additional pressure as U.S.-China trade tensions eased, with both sides reaching preliminary agreements on key issues. This spurred profit-taking, briefly pushing gold below $3,900—a $500 drop from recent highs.

However, geopolitical risks provided a floor for prices. Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and U.S. military threats against Venezuela heightened uncertainty, supporting gold's role as a hedge.

**Technical Outlook** Short-term resistance for gold lies at $4,030-$4,060, with key resistance at $4,090-$4,115. Support levels are seen at $3,950-$3,900, with critical support at $3,800-$3,750.

In China, Shanghai gold futures (AU2512) retreated sharply after touching 1,001 yuan/gram, with resistance at 930-950 yuan and support at 900-890 yuan. Silver futures (AG2512) failed to breach 13,000 yuan/kg and now face resistance at 11,500-12,500 yuan, with support at 10,800-11,000 yuan.

Despite long-term bullish drivers—including central bank demand—gold's rapid $1,000 rally since late August has left the market cautious, with short-term momentum favoring further downside.