GTHT Assigns "Buy" Rating to INNOCARE with HKD 26.7 Target Price

Stock News
09/23

GTHT has issued a research report assigning a "buy" rating to INNOCARE (09969), projecting the company's revenue for 2025-27 to reach RMB 14.43/18.59/26.91 billion respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 43%/29%/45%. Based on comparable company analysis, GTHT assigns INNOCARE a 2025 PS multiple of 30x, setting a target price of RMB 24.53/HKD 26.70 (exchange rate: 1 HKD = 0.92 RMB). The company's hematological tumor business continues to strengthen its leading position through the advancement of orelabrutinib, ICP-248 and other products, while multiple autoimmune pipelines with various indications are entering Phase III trials.

**Performance Review** In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 731 million, up 74.26% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 30 million, representing a 88.51% narrowing of losses compared to the same period last year. In the second quarter, operating revenue reached RMB 350 million, up 37.91% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 48 million, showing a 59.76% reduction in losses year-over-year. The revenue growth was primarily driven by continued increases in orelabrutinib sales volume and recognition of licensing agreement revenue, with pharmaceutical sales revenue growing 53.47%.

**Hematological Tumor Leadership Position Continues to Consolidate with Pipeline Advancement** 1) Strong orelabrutinib sales growth: In the first half of 2025, sales reached RMB 637 million, up 52.84% year-over-year. Additionally, the NDA application for CLL/SLL indication was approved in April 2025.

2) Tanshituzumab approaching commercialization: The indication for r/r DLBCL patients unsuitable for ASCT was approved for market launch in April 2025. The company expects to initiate sales between late Q3 and early Q4 2025.

3) ICP-248 launching multiple registration trials in China and the US: Domestic trials for CLL/SLL and BTKi-pretreated MCL indications are currently recruiting patients, while US-based AML and MDS-related studies are progressing steadily. The addition of new indications is expected to further drive continued growth in orelabrutinib sales.

**Multiple Autoimmune Pipelines with Various Indications Entering Phase III** 1) Orelabrutinib: Both PPMS and SPMS Phase III clinical trials are expected to begin patient recruitment in the second half of 2025. The Phase III registration trial for ITP in China has successfully completed patient enrollment and is expected to submit NDA in the first half of 2026. SLE data readout is anticipated in Q4 2025.

2) ICP-332: AD Phase III trial is accelerating patient recruitment, with vitiligo Phase II/III trial beginning patient recruitment in May 2025. The global Phase II trial for PN is expected to launch in the second half of 2025.

3) ICP-488: The Phase III registration trial for plaque psoriasis is currently recruiting patients.

**Risk Factors** Research and development progress below expectations, regulatory requirement changes, and sales performance below expectations.

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