On September 26, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Jujube rose nearly 3%, Shanghai silver gained over 2%, while fuel oil, rapeseed oil, and low sulfur fuel oil (LU) advanced over 1%. On the decline side, coke and coking coal fell over 2%, with container shipping European route, iron ore, and rebar dropping over 1.5%.

Everbright Futures Analysis:

Following supply-side disruptions in lithium carbonate production in August, September saw reduced supply risks and more stable price trends. However, due to strong demand for energy storage batteries, lithium battery production scheduling continues to rise month-over-month. Currently, leading companies have robust order books, with demand expectations remaining high. Throughout the week, lithium carbonate maintained relatively strong performance with slight upward movement in price levels.

From a fundamental perspective, weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 153 tons to 20,516 tons, with spodumene-based lithium extraction rising by 120 tons to 12,989 tons, lepidolite-based extraction declining by 20 tons to 2,840 tons, salt lake extraction increasing by 18 tons to 2,763 tons, and recycling-based extraction rising by 35 tons to 1,924 tons. As new projects gradually commence production, concerns over lithium carbonate supply are gradually weakening.

On the demand side, weekly ternary material production increased by 113 tons to 16,762 tons, with inventory rising by 351 tons to 17,896 tons. Weekly lithium iron phosphate production increased by 1,680 tons to 79,823 tons, with inventory rising by 2,069 tons to 98,286 tons. Downstream lithium battery demand remains strong, with robust energy storage battery orders driving leading lithium battery companies to near-full capacity utilization. Pre-holiday downstream restocking activities are evident, driving lithium carbonate manufacturers to reduce inventory.

Weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 706 tons to 136,825 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 1,398 tons to 60,893 tons, intermediate levels decreasing by 1,140 tons to 42,440 tons, and upstream inventory declining by 964 tons to 33,492 tons.

Approaching the National Day holiday, peak demand season combined with lithium carbonate inventory reduction and firm lithium ore prices continue to support pricing. However, subsequent pre-holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and post-holiday project resumption expectations remain uncertain, requiring careful position management. Future focus should be on the resumption progress of the Jianxiawo project and the realization of peak season demand.