JPMorgan Lowers Henderson Land Target Price to HK$35, Anticipates Earnings Recovery This Year

Stock News
03/24

JPMorgan has released a research report indicating that, based on HENDERSON LAND's (00012) track record since 2018 of favoring stable dividends over a fixed payout ratio, it expects the dividend per share to remain unchanged in the coming years. The bank anticipates that the company's share price may face pressure following the dividend cut, suggesting investors consider buying on dips. It forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 19% for HENDERSON LAND's earnings from 2025 to 2028. JPMorgan maintains an "Overweight" rating but has reduced the target price from HK$39 to HK$35, citing heightened uncertainty in the current interest rate outlook. A 38% year-on-year decline in HENDERSON LAND's underlying profit for 2025 is unlikely to surprise the market, and the 30% dividend reduction has somewhat alleviated uncertainties. Management stated during the results briefing that the goal is to stabilize dividends by 2026, coupled with an expected 28% rebound in earnings for that year. This recovery is partly driven by the potential for development property margins in Hong Kong to recover to at least a mid-teens percentage (approximately 13% to 17%). JPMorgan believes these targets are achievable barring a significant deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.

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