Global Debt Surpasses $365 Trillion as Economists Warn of "Vicious Cycle" Risk

Deep News
09/24

Economists are warning that the escalating cost of servicing debt poses a major risk to governments around the world.

Research released on Wednesday by the Institute of International Finance shows that global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of this year, pushing the total above $365 trillion.

Sovereign debt across many countries continues to climb, with medium- and long-term government bond yields in major economies such as the United States, Japan, France and the United Kingdom all hitting their highest levels in more than a decade.

Rising yields reflect growing investor concerns over higher interest rates, persistent pressure from energy costs, weak economic growth and heavy fiscal spending.

The Institute of International Finance specifically noted that these four major economies are facing "the dilemma of persistently large fiscal deficits and mounting interest expenses — problems that in the past were long associated with emerging market sovereign nations mired in debt distress."

The Washington-based body estimates that advanced economies paid more than $3.3 trillion in interest on internationally traded government bonds last year.

That scale has already exceeded the full-year investment in global artificial intelligence ($2.6 trillion), defense ($3.1 trillion) and clean energy ($2.3 trillion).

The Institute of International Finance warns that the debt issue has already evolved into a political matter, spawning "a vicious cycle between election cycles and short-term emergency policies; as the marginal utility of new debt diminishes, long-term fiscal fragility accumulates accordingly."

The report added: "As benchmark interest rates rise, interest expenses will surge substantially; meanwhile, structural pressures from healthcare and public pension spending remain largely unaddressed."

The Paris-based OECD said in its economic outlook report released on Wednesday that rising government bond yields show countries need to step up efforts to "control and readjust government spending, improve public sector efficiency and increase fiscal revenue."

The OECD said such reforms are crucial to safeguarding long-term debt sustainability and ensuring governments can respond to various future shocks.

Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview this week that various global economic shocks are "pushing debt levels higher like a staircase, without end," and she criticized governments for insufficient action.

"Two things must be done: reduce debt levels and make fiscal consolidation a priority; at the same time, ensure that central banks fulfill their statutory mandate of price stability," she said.

"We cannot emphasize this enough: it is crucial to summon the courage to take the necessary measures. These measures face great political resistance, but they must be done."

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